NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows negligible impact risks for 2026, with tiny objects like 11-meter (2013 TP4) carrying just 0.0035% cumulative probability and sub-10kt yields, anchoring trader consensus at 83.5% implied odds for no major 10-kiloton meteor strike. A Q1 surge in fireballs—record reports per American Meteor Society, with largest at 0.37kt over Ohio on March 17—stems from elevated sporadic meteoroid flux in high-declination radiants, enhanced by all-sky cameras and AI reporting, but none exceeded the threshold. Safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD in April, reinforce low threat. Ongoing planetary defense tracking leaves room for undetected small impactors, though historical baselines favor resolution as "No" by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
Sí
$149,957 Vol.
$149,957 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$149,957 Vol.
$149,957 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows negligible impact risks for 2026, with tiny objects like 11-meter (2013 TP4) carrying just 0.0035% cumulative probability and sub-10kt yields, anchoring trader consensus at 83.5% implied odds for no major 10-kiloton meteor strike. A Q1 surge in fireballs—record reports per American Meteor Society, with largest at 0.37kt over Ohio on March 17—stems from elevated sporadic meteoroid flux in high-declination radiants, enhanced by all-sky cameras and AI reporting, but none exceeded the threshold. Safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD in April, reinforce low threat. Ongoing planetary defense tracking leaves room for undetected small impactors, though historical baselines favor resolution as "No" by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$149,957Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows negligible impact risks for 2026, with tiny objects like 11-meter (2013 TP4) carrying just 0.0035% cumulative probability and sub-10kt yields, anchoring trader consensus at 83.5% implied odds for no major 10-kiloton meteor strike. A Q1 surge in fireballs—record reports per American Meteor Society, with largest at 0.37kt over Ohio on March 17—stems from elevated sporadic meteoroid flux in high-declination radiants, enhanced by all-sky cameras and AI reporting, but none exceeded the threshold. Safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD in April, reinforce low threat. Ongoing planetary defense tracking leaves room for undetected small impactors, though historical baselines favor resolution as "No" by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$149,957Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows negligible impact risks for 2026, with tiny objects like 11-meter (2013 TP4) carrying just 0.0035% cumulative probability and sub-10kt yields, anchoring trader consensus at 83.5% implied odds for no major 10-kiloton meteor strike. A Q1 surge in fireballs—record reports per American Meteor Society, with largest at 0.37kt over Ohio on March 17—stems from elevated sporadic meteoroid flux in high-declination radiants, enhanced by all-sky cameras and AI reporting, but none exceeded the threshold. Safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD in April, reinforce low threat. Ongoing planetary defense tracking leaves room for undetected small impactors, though historical baselines favor resolution as "No" by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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