US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and March 2026 inflicted heavy damage on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, plus the Taleghan-2 nuclear test site where satellite imagery confirms bunker-buster impacts collapsed underground test chambers. The IAEA's February 2026 safeguards report notes no evidence of weaponization or testing amid lost continuity of knowledge over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiles, with access denied to struck sites. A fragile April ceasefire and deadlocked US-Iran talks—where Iran defers highly enriched uranium concessions per its April 27 proposal—further deter escalation to testing, aligning trader consensus at 90.5% "No" despite speculation of 1-3 month breakout times. Late-breaking diplomacy or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$181,512 Vol.
$181,512 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$181,512 Vol.
$181,512 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and March 2026 inflicted heavy damage on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, plus the Taleghan-2 nuclear test site where satellite imagery confirms bunker-buster impacts collapsed underground test chambers. The IAEA's February 2026 safeguards report notes no evidence of weaponization or testing amid lost continuity of knowledge over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiles, with access denied to struck sites. A fragile April ceasefire and deadlocked US-Iran talks—where Iran defers highly enriched uranium concessions per its April 27 proposal—further deter escalation to testing, aligning trader consensus at 90.5% "No" despite speculation of 1-3 month breakout times. Late-breaking diplomacy or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$181,512Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and March 2026 inflicted heavy damage on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, plus the Taleghan-2 nuclear test site where satellite imagery confirms bunker-buster impacts collapsed underground test chambers. The IAEA's February 2026 safeguards report notes no evidence of weaponization or testing amid lost continuity of knowledge over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiles, with access denied to struck sites. A fragile April ceasefire and deadlocked US-Iran talks—where Iran defers highly enriched uranium concessions per its April 27 proposal—further deter escalation to testing, aligning trader consensus at 90.5% "No" despite speculation of 1-3 month breakout times. Late-breaking diplomacy or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$181,512Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and March 2026 inflicted heavy damage on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, plus the Taleghan-2 nuclear test site where satellite imagery confirms bunker-buster impacts collapsed underground test chambers. The IAEA's February 2026 safeguards report notes no evidence of weaponization or testing amid lost continuity of knowledge over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiles, with access denied to struck sites. A fragile April ceasefire and deadlocked US-Iran talks—where Iran defers highly enriched uranium concessions per its April 27 proposal—further deter escalation to testing, aligning trader consensus at 90.5% "No" despite speculation of 1-3 month breakout times. Late-breaking diplomacy or covert rebuilding could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes