Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 90.5%, reflecting the severe setbacks to Tehran's nuclear program from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025, including damage to key facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Parchin—once used for explosives testing—leaving IAEA inspectors unable to fully verify stockpiles of highly enriched uranium amid denied access to struck sites. Recent April diplomacy, such as Iran's rejected offer to suspend enrichment for five years in exchange for lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade, underscores stalled negotiations prioritizing war cessation over proliferation. With no seismic detections or credible weaponization reports, technical hurdles like bomb design and global monitoring, combined with escalation risks, reinforce the low likelihood despite Iran's 60% enriched uranium holdings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$182,147 Vol.
$182,147 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$182,147 Vol.
$182,147 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 90.5%, reflecting the severe setbacks to Tehran's nuclear program from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025, including damage to key facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Parchin—once used for explosives testing—leaving IAEA inspectors unable to fully verify stockpiles of highly enriched uranium amid denied access to struck sites. Recent April diplomacy, such as Iran's rejected offer to suspend enrichment for five years in exchange for lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade, underscores stalled negotiations prioritizing war cessation over proliferation. With no seismic detections or credible weaponization reports, technical hurdles like bomb design and global monitoring, combined with escalation risks, reinforce the low likelihood despite Iran's 60% enriched uranium holdings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$182,147Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 90.5%, reflecting the severe setbacks to Tehran's nuclear program from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025, including damage to key facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Parchin—once used for explosives testing—leaving IAEA inspectors unable to fully verify stockpiles of highly enriched uranium amid denied access to struck sites. Recent April diplomacy, such as Iran's rejected offer to suspend enrichment for five years in exchange for lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade, underscores stalled negotiations prioritizing war cessation over proliferation. With no seismic detections or credible weaponization reports, technical hurdles like bomb design and global monitoring, combined with escalation risks, reinforce the low likelihood despite Iran's 60% enriched uranium holdings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$182,147Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 at 90.5%, reflecting the severe setbacks to Tehran's nuclear program from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025, including damage to key facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Parchin—once used for explosives testing—leaving IAEA inspectors unable to fully verify stockpiles of highly enriched uranium amid denied access to struck sites. Recent April diplomacy, such as Iran's rejected offer to suspend enrichment for five years in exchange for lifting the Strait of Hormuz blockade, underscores stalled negotiations prioritizing war cessation over proliferation. With no seismic detections or credible weaponization reports, technical hurdles like bomb design and global monitoring, combined with escalation risks, reinforce the low likelihood despite Iran's 60% enriched uranium holdings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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