Polymarket traders have priced Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 0-1.0% at 39.6% implied probability edging 1.0-2.0% at 36.5%, aligning closely with ECB staff's March projection of 0.9% and IMF's April downgrade to 1.1%. Yesterday's Eurostat flash Q1 data—revealing just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth versus the expected 0.2%—underscored the slowdown, amplifying concerns over subdued investment and consumption amid Middle East energy shocks and heightened uncertainty. Key swing factors include energy price stabilization, ECB easing pace amid 2.6% HICP inflation, and fiscal boosts from defense spending; escalation risks could tip toward contraction, while resilient labor markets support the 1-2% band. Watch Q2 GDP flash in June and ECB projections for resolution catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0-1,0% 39.6%
1,0-2,0% 30%
<0% 11.2%
2,0-3,0% 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ene 2027
<0%
11%
0-1,0%
40%
1,0-2,0%
35%
2,0-3,0%
8%
3,0-4,0%
4%
4,0-5,0%
4%
5,0-6,0%
4%
6,0-7,0%
6%
7.0%+
5%
0-1,0% 39.6%
1,0-2,0% 30%
<0% 11.2%
2,0-3,0% 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ene 2027
<0%
$693 Vol.
11%
0-1,0%
$600 Vol.
40%
1,0-2,0%
$1,412 Vol.
35%
2,0-3,0%
$612 Vol.
8%
3,0-4,0%
$528 Vol.
4%
4,0-5,0%
$1,443 Vol.
4%
5,0-6,0%
$605 Vol.
4%
6,0-7,0%
$742 Vol.
6%
7.0%+
$975 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders have priced Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 0-1.0% at 39.6% implied probability edging 1.0-2.0% at 36.5%, aligning closely with ECB staff's March projection of 0.9% and IMF's April downgrade to 1.1%. Yesterday's Eurostat flash Q1 data—revealing just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth versus the expected 0.2%—underscored the slowdown, amplifying concerns over subdued investment and consumption amid Middle East energy shocks and heightened uncertainty. Key swing factors include energy price stabilization, ECB easing pace amid 2.6% HICP inflation, and fiscal boosts from defense spending; escalation risks could tip toward contraction, while resilient labor markets support the 1-2% band. Watch Q2 GDP flash in June and ECB projections for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$7,609Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders have priced Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 0-1.0% at 39.6% implied probability edging 1.0-2.0% at 36.5%, aligning closely with ECB staff's March projection of 0.9% and IMF's April downgrade to 1.1%. Yesterday's Eurostat flash Q1 data—revealing just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth versus the expected 0.2%—underscored the slowdown, amplifying concerns over subdued investment and consumption amid Middle East energy shocks and heightened uncertainty. Key swing factors include energy price stabilization, ECB easing pace amid 2.6% HICP inflation, and fiscal boosts from defense spending; escalation risks could tip toward contraction, while resilient labor markets support the 1-2% band. Watch Q2 GDP flash in June and ECB projections for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,609Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders have priced Eurozone 2026 annual GDP growth in a razor-thin contest, with 0-1.0% at 39.6% implied probability edging 1.0-2.0% at 36.5%, aligning closely with ECB staff's March projection of 0.9% and IMF's April downgrade to 1.1%. Yesterday's Eurostat flash Q1 data—revealing just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth versus the expected 0.2%—underscored the slowdown, amplifying concerns over subdued investment and consumption amid Middle East energy shocks and heightened uncertainty. Key swing factors include energy price stabilization, ECB easing pace amid 2.6% HICP inflation, and fiscal boosts from defense spending; escalation risks could tip toward contraction, while resilient labor markets support the 1-2% band. Watch Q2 GDP flash in June and ECB projections for resolution catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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