Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Alphabet holding second-largest market capitalization by end-May, reflecting its current $4.44 trillion valuation—firmly behind Nvidia's $4.91 trillion lead but ahead of Apple's $3.98 trillion by over $460 billion. Recent catalysts include Alphabet's $40 billion commitment to Anthropic (with $10 billion upfront), bolstering its AI cloud positioning amid surging demand, alongside a 5.7% daily share gain that widened its edge over Apple, which briefly reclaimed $4 trillion before retreating. Implied odds favor stability through May, though mega-cap earnings this week—Alphabet and Apple reporting imminently—represent key swing factors that could alter relative valuations via revenue guidance on AI and services growth. Lower probabilities for Nvidia (5.5%) or Apple (10%) underscore the structural gap, with Microsoft, Amazon, and others trailing by $700 billion-plus.