Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI in the 0.6–1.0% bin at a 44.5% implied probability, reflecting March 2026 data showing consumer prices up just 1.0% year-on-year—easing from February's 1.3% peak and below expectations—while the Q1 average rose a subdued 0.9%. Persistent weak domestic demand, property sector distress, and manufacturing overcapacity continue suppressing inflation, offsetting a modest PPI rebound to +0.5% from imported oil pressures. Forecasts like Nomura's 0.6% full-year projection and JPMorgan's 0.8% align with this positioning, far below Beijing's ~2% target. Deflation risks linger at 18.1% odds for -0.9 to -0.5%, with April CPI data due mid-May as the next key catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoInflación anual de China 2026
Inflación anual de China 2026
0,6 – 1,0% 49%
1,1 – 1,5% 23%
1.6 – 2.0% 13.0%
2.5%+ 11.5%
$35,921 Vol.
$35,921 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<-1,0%
3%
-0.9 – -0.5%
15%
-0,4 – 0,0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
6%
0,6 – 1,0%
49%
1,1 – 1,5%
23%
1.6 – 2.0%
13%
2.0-2.4%
8%
2.5%+
12%
0,6 – 1,0% 49%
1,1 – 1,5% 23%
1.6 – 2.0% 13.0%
2.5%+ 11.5%
$35,921 Vol.
$35,921 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<-1,0%
$17,106 Vol.
3%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$1,976 Vol.
15%
-0,4 – 0,0%
$2,134 Vol.
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
$2,079 Vol.
6%
0,6 – 1,0%
$2,548 Vol.
49%
1,1 – 1,5%
$2,796 Vol.
23%
1.6 – 2.0%
$3,139 Vol.
13%
2.0-2.4%
$2,051 Vol.
8%
2.5%+
$2,092 Vol.
12%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI in the 0.6–1.0% bin at a 44.5% implied probability, reflecting March 2026 data showing consumer prices up just 1.0% year-on-year—easing from February's 1.3% peak and below expectations—while the Q1 average rose a subdued 0.9%. Persistent weak domestic demand, property sector distress, and manufacturing overcapacity continue suppressing inflation, offsetting a modest PPI rebound to +0.5% from imported oil pressures. Forecasts like Nomura's 0.6% full-year projection and JPMorgan's 0.8% align with this positioning, far below Beijing's ~2% target. Deflation risks linger at 18.1% odds for -0.9 to -0.5%, with April CPI data due mid-May as the next key catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Volumen
$35,921Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI in the 0.6–1.0% bin at a 44.5% implied probability, reflecting March 2026 data showing consumer prices up just 1.0% year-on-year—easing from February's 1.3% peak and below expectations—while the Q1 average rose a subdued 0.9%. Persistent weak domestic demand, property sector distress, and manufacturing overcapacity continue suppressing inflation, offsetting a modest PPI rebound to +0.5% from imported oil pressures. Forecasts like Nomura's 0.6% full-year projection and JPMorgan's 0.8% align with this positioning, far below Beijing's ~2% target. Deflation risks linger at 18.1% odds for -0.9 to -0.5%, with April CPI data due mid-May as the next key catalyst.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Volumen
$35,921Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices China's 2026 annual CPI in the 0.6–1.0% bin at a 44.5% implied probability, reflecting March 2026 data showing consumer prices up just 1.0% year-on-year—easing from February's 1.3% peak and below expectations—while the Q1 average rose a subdued 0.9%. Persistent weak domestic demand, property sector distress, and manufacturing overcapacity continue suppressing inflation, offsetting a modest PPI rebound to +0.5% from imported oil pressures. Forecasts like Nomura's 0.6% full-year projection and JPMorgan's 0.8% align with this positioning, far below Beijing's ~2% target. Deflation risks linger at 18.1% odds for -0.9 to -0.5%, with April CPI data due mid-May as the next key catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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