Renan Santos participates in high-profile interview on Folha and UOL’s Frente a Frente program, boosting visibility but not significantly changing market confidence in his

Renan Santos participates in high-profile interview on Folha and UOL’s Frente a Frente program, boosting visibility but not significantly changing market confidence in his electoral prospects

Lula’s lowest market

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 36%5%

Increasing voter rejection and stronger opposition candidates pushed Lula’s market probability to its lowest point.

Bloomberg reports Flávio Bolsonaro’s surge in the presidential race, putting him neck and neck with Lula even before official campaigning begins, reflecting growing market

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%4%

Bloomberg reports Flávio Bolsonaro’s surge in the presidential race, putting him neck and neck with Lula even before official campaigning begins, reflecting growing market confidence

Zema rejects the offer to be Flávio Bolsonaro’s vice-presidential candidate, confirming a fragmented right-wing field and solidifying his independent presidential bid, which

Romeu Zema rises to 7%2%

Zema rejects the offer to be Flávio Bolsonaro’s vice-presidential candidate, confirming a fragmented right-wing field and solidifying his independent presidential bid, which influenced market reassessment of his chances

Haddad launches a digital tax‑reform platform as finance minister, keeping him in the news but not reviving presidential prospects, stabilising the

Fernando Haddad rises to 5%2%

Haddad launches a digital tax‑reform platform as finance minister, keeping him in the news but not reviving presidential prospects, stabilising the

Zema publicly calls for impeachment and imprisonment of two Supreme Federal Court ministers, intensifying his anti-establishment stance and energizing his base amid discussions of

Romeu Zema rises to 5%2%

Zema publicly calls for impeachment and imprisonment of two Supreme Federal Court ministers, intensifying his anti-establishment stance and energizing his base amid discussions of right-wing alliances

Zema launches a radical economic plan in São Paulo proposing privatization of all federal state-owned enterprises and deregulation, differentiating his platform from other

Romeu Zema rises to 4%2%

Zema launches a radical economic plan in São Paulo proposing privatization of all federal state-owned enterprises and deregulation, differentiating his platform from other candidates and boosting market attention

Rising public support allows Flávio Bolsonaro to delay naming key economic advisers, indicating campaign momentum and strategic positioning ahead of the election

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%

Rising public support allows Flávio Bolsonaro to delay naming key economic advisers, indicating campaign momentum and strategic positioning ahead of the election

Romeu Zema resigns as Governor of Minas Gerais to run for President, signaling serious commitment to the 2026 race and increasing investor interest in his candidacy

Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%

Romeu Zema resigns as Governor of Minas Gerais to run for President, signaling serious commitment to the 2026 race and increasing investor interest in his candidacy

Reuters reports Haddad’s resignation and immediate declaration of a gubernatorial bid, further dampening any remaining speculation about a presidential candidacy

Fernando Haddad dips to 3%2%

Reuters reports Haddad’s resignation and immediate declaration of a gubernatorial bid, further dampening any remaining speculation about a presidential candidacy

Haddad announces he will step down as finance minister to run for São Paulo governor, signaling a shift to a regional race rather than a presidential bid

Fernando Haddad rises to 5%3%

Haddad announces he will step down as finance minister to run for São Paulo governor, signaling a shift to a regional race rather than a presidential bid

Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck with President Lula in first-round scenarios, fueling market optimism about his chances and pushing his

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 39%4%

Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck with President Lula in first-round scenarios, fueling market optimism about his chances and pushing his

Datafolha poll shows technical tie between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 45%5%

Polls indicating a close race between Lula and Bolsonaro’s son heightened election uncertainty, leading to a market decline.

Polls show Renan Santos consolidating as a third-place candidate behind Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with growing support among younger voters but still trailing significantly

Renan Santos dips to 5%1%

Polls show Renan Santos consolidating as a third-place candidate behind Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with growing support among younger voters but still trailing significantly overall

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly confirms his father chose him to represent the Liberal Party in the presidential race, with party president Valdemar Costa Neto reaffirming support,

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 35%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly confirms his father chose him to represent the Liberal Party in the presidential race, with party president Valdemar Costa Neto reaffirming support, boosting confidence in his campaign

Flávio Bolsonaro gains a 10-point surge in market

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%10%

Flávio Bolsonaro gains a 10-point surge in market

Renan Santos launches campaign proposals including transforming Rio de Janeiro into a city-state and advocating for a national Bitcoin reserve, increasing media attention but

Renan Santos rises to 9%4%

Renan Santos launches campaign proposals including transforming Rio de Janeiro into a city-state and advocating for a national Bitcoin reserve, increasing media attention but limited impact on polling numbers

Flavio Bolsonaro announces plans to name a finance minister before the election to signal a pro-market agenda, attempting to gain market confidence.

Despite this, Jair Bolsonaro's personal chances remain negligible due to his legal status

Lula’s political support remains strong despite corruption charges and opposition gains

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%8%

Despite ongoing legal challenges and rising opposition, Lula’s base and political alliances held firm, reflected in a market rebound.

Jair Bolsonaro is temporarily released from prison for a hernia surgery, highlighting his ongoing health issues but not improving his electoral prospects.

Jair Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%

Flavio Bolsonaro's campaign gains more visibility as he positions himself as the political heir

Political analysts note fragmentation of Brazil’s right-wing opposition, with Renan Santos expected to gain space due to rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro by some voters, but concerns

Renan Santos rises to 8%2%

Political analysts note fragmentation of Brazil’s right-wing opposition, with Renan Santos expected to gain space due to rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro by some voters, but concerns about opposition disunity persist

Haddad reaffirms he will not run for public office in 2026, again confirming his intention to stay out of the presidential race

Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%

Haddad reaffirms he will not run for public office in 2026, again confirming his intention to stay out of the presidential race

Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirms his "irreversible" decision to run for president, challenging incumbent Lula, which caused some market jitters and a brief dip in his

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 17%4%

Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirms his "irreversible" decision to run for president, challenging incumbent Lula, which caused some market jitters and a brief dip in his

Jair Bolsonaro endorses his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party’s candidate for the 2026 presidential election from a hospital bed, reinforcing Flávio’s legitimacy and

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%10%

Jair Bolsonaro endorses his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party’s candidate for the 2026 presidential election from a hospital bed, reinforcing Flávio’s legitimacy and energizing his base

Flavio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro's son, officially announces his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election with his father's endorsement from prison.

Jair Bolsonaro dips to 0%2%

This unexpected move caused market jitters and a currency and stock market drop, but Jair Bolsonaro's own chances remained near zero due to his imprisonment

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly announces his presidential candidacy for the 2026 election, stating he received the nomination from his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro during a prison

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%13%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly announces his presidential candidacy for the 2026 election, stating he received the nomination from his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro during a prison visit, marking his official entry into the race

Flavio Bolsonaro announces presidential bid with Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 54%5%

The entry of Jair Bolsonaro’s son as a presidential candidate, endorsed by the imprisoned former president, intensified right-wing opposition to Lula, causing a market dip.

Mission Party officially registered with the Superior Electoral Court, with Renan Santos as president, marking his formal entry into the 2026 presidential race and initial market

Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%

Mission Party officially registered with the Superior Electoral Court, with Renan Santos as president, marking his formal entry into the 2026 presidential race and initial market optimism about his candidacy

U.S. removes 40% tariffs on Brazilian exports after Lula-Trump talks

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%13%

Following a phone call between Lula and Trump, the U.S. withdrew punitive tariffs on Brazilian goods, improving Lula’s economic outlook and boosting market confidence in his presidency.

Jair Bolsonaro delays endorsement decision for the 2026 election, creating uncertainty in the right-wing camp and hindering consolidation around São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de

Jair Bolsonaro drops to 2%5%

Jair Bolsonaro delays endorsement decision for the 2026 election, creating uncertainty in the right-wing camp and hindering consolidation around São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. This indecision contributed to further

Finance Minister Haddad rules out a 2026 presidential run, saying President Lula will respect his decision

Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%

Finance Minister Haddad rules out a 2026 presidential run, saying President Lula will respect his decision

Brazil Supreme Court convicts Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a coup and sentences him to 27 years in prison, barring him from holding office until 2030.

Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 7%29%

This conviction significantly reduced Bolsonaro's chances of running in 2026, causing a sharp market

Brazil’s Supreme Court to rule on Lula’s plea for freedom amid corruption conviction

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 43%12%

The Supreme Court prepared to decide on Lula’s appeal to be freed to join the presidential campaign despite his corruption conviction, creating uncertainty about his candidacy viability and causing a market drop.