Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race between 1.9%–2.2% (46%) and 1.5%–1.8% (37.5%) year-over-year GDP growth for Brazil's Q1 2026, reflecting mixed early indicators amid persistent headwinds from elevated Selic rates around 13–14% and fiscal deficit risks. February's IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.6% month-on-month, signaling moderate Q1 recovery after H2 2025 softening, while March's Leading Economic Index declined 1.2%, tempering optimism. IMF's April upward revision to 1.9% full-year growth and central bank Focus poll at 1.8% anchor the clustering, but oil price spikes have prompted Selic hike forecasts, capping upside. IBGE's official Q1 release, due May 29, remains the key catalyst to resolve the contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de Brasil en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB de Brasil en el primer trimestre de 2026?
1,9%–2,2% 47.0%
1,5%–1,8% 29%
0,7%–1,0% 17.5%
1,1%–1,4% 13.4%
$18,704 Vol.
$18,704 Vol.
29 may 2026
<0,7%
6%
0,7%–1,0%
18%
1,1%–1,4%
13%
1,5%–1,8%
29%
1,9%–2,2%
47%
2.3%–2.6%
15%
≥2,7%
7%
1,9%–2,2% 47.0%
1,5%–1,8% 29%
0,7%–1,0% 17.5%
1,1%–1,4% 13.4%
$18,704 Vol.
$18,704 Vol.
29 may 2026
<0,7%
$14,128 Vol.
6%
0,7%–1,0%
$503 Vol.
18%
1,1%–1,4%
$396 Vol.
13%
1,5%–1,8%
$775 Vol.
29%
1,9%–2,2%
$866 Vol.
47%
2.3%–2.6%
$359 Vol.
15%
≥2,7%
$1,677 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race between 1.9%–2.2% (46%) and 1.5%–1.8% (37.5%) year-over-year GDP growth for Brazil's Q1 2026, reflecting mixed early indicators amid persistent headwinds from elevated Selic rates around 13–14% and fiscal deficit risks. February's IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.6% month-on-month, signaling moderate Q1 recovery after H2 2025 softening, while March's Leading Economic Index declined 1.2%, tempering optimism. IMF's April upward revision to 1.9% full-year growth and central bank Focus poll at 1.8% anchor the clustering, but oil price spikes have prompted Selic hike forecasts, capping upside. IBGE's official Q1 release, due May 29, remains the key catalyst to resolve the contest.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$18,704Fecha de finalización
29 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race between 1.9%–2.2% (46%) and 1.5%–1.8% (37.5%) year-over-year GDP growth for Brazil's Q1 2026, reflecting mixed early indicators amid persistent headwinds from elevated Selic rates around 13–14% and fiscal deficit risks. February's IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.6% month-on-month, signaling moderate Q1 recovery after H2 2025 softening, while March's Leading Economic Index declined 1.2%, tempering optimism. IMF's April upward revision to 1.9% full-year growth and central bank Focus poll at 1.8% anchor the clustering, but oil price spikes have prompted Selic hike forecasts, capping upside. IBGE's official Q1 release, due May 29, remains the key catalyst to resolve the contest.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$18,704Fecha de finalización
29 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race between 1.9%–2.2% (46%) and 1.5%–1.8% (37.5%) year-over-year GDP growth for Brazil's Q1 2026, reflecting mixed early indicators amid persistent headwinds from elevated Selic rates around 13–14% and fiscal deficit risks. February's IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.6% month-on-month, signaling moderate Q1 recovery after H2 2025 softening, while March's Leading Economic Index declined 1.2%, tempering optimism. IMF's April upward revision to 1.9% full-year growth and central bank Focus poll at 1.8% anchor the clustering, but oil price spikes have prompted Selic hike forecasts, capping upside. IBGE's official Q1 release, due May 29, remains the key catalyst to resolve the contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes