Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz transit volumes—per IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of at least 60 daily ship arrivals—will normalize by December 31, 2026, amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis that has throttled traffic to 17-18 vessels per day (28% of pre-crisis baseline) and 5% of normal throughput since late February. Recent diplomatic catalysts, including Pakistan-mediated talks launched May 7 and President Trump's pause of Operation Project Freedom citing progress, have enabled limited tanker transits like Japan's ENEOS and Chinese supertankers carrying Iraqi crude on May 14, despite IRGC-mandated inspections and vessel seizures. Surging Brent crude near $100/bbl and 30x war risk premiums underscore economic pressures favoring de-escalation, with Trump-Xi summit and UN resolutions as pivotal near-term triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$100,423 Vol.
$100,423 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$100,423 Vol.
$100,423 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz transit volumes—per IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of at least 60 daily ship arrivals—will normalize by December 31, 2026, amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis that has throttled traffic to 17-18 vessels per day (28% of pre-crisis baseline) and 5% of normal throughput since late February. Recent diplomatic catalysts, including Pakistan-mediated talks launched May 7 and President Trump's pause of Operation Project Freedom citing progress, have enabled limited tanker transits like Japan's ENEOS and Chinese supertankers carrying Iraqi crude on May 14, despite IRGC-mandated inspections and vessel seizures. Surging Brent crude near $100/bbl and 30x war risk premiums underscore economic pressures favoring de-escalation, with Trump-Xi summit and UN resolutions as pivotal near-term triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volumen
$100,423Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz transit volumes—per IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of at least 60 daily ship arrivals—will normalize by December 31, 2026, amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis that has throttled traffic to 17-18 vessels per day (28% of pre-crisis baseline) and 5% of normal throughput since late February. Recent diplomatic catalysts, including Pakistan-mediated talks launched May 7 and President Trump's pause of Operation Project Freedom citing progress, have enabled limited tanker transits like Japan's ENEOS and Chinese supertankers carrying Iraqi crude on May 14, despite IRGC-mandated inspections and vessel seizures. Surging Brent crude near $100/bbl and 30x war risk premiums underscore economic pressures favoring de-escalation, with Trump-Xi summit and UN resolutions as pivotal near-term triggers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$100,423Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz transit volumes—per IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of at least 60 daily ship arrivals—will normalize by December 31, 2026, amid the ongoing US-Iran crisis that has throttled traffic to 17-18 vessels per day (28% of pre-crisis baseline) and 5% of normal throughput since late February. Recent diplomatic catalysts, including Pakistan-mediated talks launched May 7 and President Trump's pause of Operation Project Freedom citing progress, have enabled limited tanker transits like Japan's ENEOS and Chinese supertankers carrying Iraqi crude on May 14, despite IRGC-mandated inspections and vessel seizures. Surging Brent crude near $100/bbl and 30x war risk premiums underscore economic pressures favoring de-escalation, with Trump-Xi summit and UN resolutions as pivotal near-term triggers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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