Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 6.50% and signal that the current level would likely remain appropriate amid economic slack and geopolitical uncertainty has anchored trader consensus on no change at the June 25 meeting. Recent inflation data showed headline inflation easing to 4.45% and core to 4.26% in April, supporting the view that demand-driven pressures have moderated even as short-term forecasts were revised modestly higher. With the easing cycle appearing to conclude and the central bank projecting convergence to its 3% target only in Q2 2027, market-implied odds reflect this data-dependent pause. Unexpectedly resilient inflation prints or sharper contraction in Q2 activity could still shift the balance toward another cut.