This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors a Democratic House majority at around 86% implied probability, driven by persistent Democratic leads of 8–10 points on the generic congressional ballot in recent polls from outlets like Marist and Morning Consult, alongside President Trump's approval ratings dipping into the mid-30s amid economic concerns and foreign policy challenges like gas prices and Iran tensions. This aligns with historical midterm patterns where the president's party loses an average of 28 House seats. The Senate remains closely contested, with Republicans defending a 53–47 majority in a map featuring battlegrounds like New Hampshire and competitive open seats; forecasts from Sabato's Crystal Ball and Race to the WH show narrow GOP holds but vulnerability to wave dynamics. Primaries conclude soon, with full campaign intensity ramping post-Labor Day.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Trader consensus favors a Democratic House majority at around 86% implied probability, driven by persistent Democratic leads of 8–10 points on the generic congressional ballot in recent polls from outlets like Marist and Morning Consult, alongside President Trump's approval ratings dipping into the mid-30s amid economic concerns and foreign policy challenges like gas prices and Iran tensions. This aligns with historical midterm patterns where the president's party loses an average of 28 House seats. The Senate remains closely contested, with Republicans defending a 53–47 majority in a map featuring battlegrounds like New Hampshire and competitive open seats; forecasts from Sabato's Crystal Ball and Race to the WH show narrow GOP holds but vulnerability to wave dynamics. Primaries conclude soon, with full campaign intensity ramping post-Labor Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 26 2026
Slight market rebound (+3 points) follows announcements of some GOP candidates entering races and efforts to shore up vulnerable seats, reflecting cautious optimism about GOP
R Senate, D House rises to 39%3%
Slight market rebound (+3 points) follows announcements of some GOP candidates entering races and efforts to shore up vulnerable seats, reflecting cautious optimism about GOP Senate hold despite House losses
Apr 23 2026
Slight market correction to 49% as concerns about Democratic enthusiasm and voter dissatisfaction emerge from AP-NORC and youth polling
Democrats Sweep drops to 49%5%
AP-NORC and University of Chicago polls revealed ongoing dissatisfaction among young voters and some Democrats, tempering enthusiasm and causing a modest
Apr 17 2026
Democrats reach peak market confidence at 54% amid favorable polling and strong fundraising in battleground states
Democrats Sweep rises to 54%3%
Polling aggregators and race ratings showed Democrats with a slight edge in the Senate and House races, supported by fundraising advantages and demographic trends favoring Democrats.
Apr 14 2026
Market trough at 33% coincides with ongoing reports of GOP retirements and Democratic gains in state legislatures, indicating growing market skepticism about GOP Senate retention
R Senate, D House dips to 33%4%
Market trough at 33% coincides with ongoing reports of GOP retirements and Democratic gains in state legislatures, indicating growing market skepticism about GOP Senate retention and House control split
Apr 7 2026
Maine poll shows Democrat Platner leading incumbent Collins by 9 points, reflecting broader Democratic gains in Senate battlegrounds
Democrats Sweep rises to 51%3%
A Maine People’s Resource Center poll revealed a significant Democratic lead in a key Senate race, reinforcing the narrative of Democratic strength in competitive states.
Apr 4 2026
POLITICO reports Republicans losing clout in statehouses with multiple GOP leaders stepping down, reinforcing the narrative of Republican difficulties in 2026 elections
POLITICO reports Republicans losing clout in statehouses with multiple GOP leaders stepping down, reinforcing the narrative of Republican difficulties in 2026 elections
Mar 13 2026
New polls show Democrats expanding their lead in key races and voter enthusiasm, pushing market
Democrats Sweep jumps to 48%7%
Polls from multiple sources including Marist and CNN indicated growing Democratic support and voter confidence, especially among independents and young voters, increasing expectations for a sweep.
Mar 4 2026
Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines announces he will not seek reelection, adding to the wave of GOP Senate retirements and increasing uncertainty about Republican Senate
R Senate, D House dips to 33%4%
Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines announces he will not seek reelection, adding to the wave of GOP Senate retirements and increasing uncertainty about Republican Senate control
Feb 28 2026
Polling and race ratings indicate a highly competitive Senate map with Democrats holding a marginal advantage, raising hopes for Senate control
Democrats Sweep rises to 41%4%
Newsweek analysis highlighted Democrats' opportunities due to GOP retirements and strong candidates in battleground states, making Senate control a realistic goal.
Feb 1 2026
Multiple GOP state legislative leaders resign or retire amid dimming Republican prospects, indicating internal party challenges and weakening GOP position ahead of midterms
Republicans Sweep drops to 14%6%
Multiple GOP state legislative leaders resign or retire amid dimming Republican prospects, indicating internal party challenges and weakening GOP position ahead of midterms
Jan 18 2026
Continued retirements and primary challenges among Republicans, including North Carolina GOP Senate leader Berger’s announced retirement, contribute to concerns about GOP
R Senate, D House drops to 37%7%
Continued retirements and primary challenges among Republicans, including North Carolina GOP Senate leader Berger’s announced retirement, contribute to concerns about GOP organizational strength and fundraising ahead of midterms
Dec 17 2025
Quinnipiac poll reveals historic low 18% approval rating for congressional Democrats but also shows 47% of voters want Democrats to control the House, reflecting Democratic
Republicans Sweep dips to 19%3%
Quinnipiac poll reveals historic low 18% approval rating for congressional Democrats but also shows 47% of voters want Democrats to control the House, reflecting Democratic enthusiasm and Republican struggles
Dec 17 2025
Record number of congressional retirements announced, including 10 senators and 44 House members, with notable GOP retirements such as Rep.
R Senate, D House dips to 42%4%
Marjorie Taylor Greene resigning effective January 5, 2026, amid clashes with Trump and internal party strife; this signals potential weakening of GOP incumbency advantage
Dec 3 2025
Polls show Democrats gaining ground nationally with a 10-point generic ballot lead and strong special election performances, improving midterm prospects
Democrats Sweep jumps to 37%9%
Emerson and Quinnipiac polls reported Democrats holding a double-digit lead over Republicans, supported by special election swings averaging 15 points toward Democrats, signaling increased chances for a sweep.
Nov 10 2025
November 2025 off-year elections see Democrats surge in races nationwide, boosting Democratic momentum ahead of 2026 midterms;
R Senate, D House dips to 51%2%
shortly after, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announces she will not seek another term, indicating generational change in Democratic leadership
Nov 6 2025
Democrats achieve significant wins in 2025 off-year elections including Virginia and New Jersey governor races, boosting confidence for 2026 midterms
Democrats Sweep jumps to 32%10%
Democrats swept major races in key states and secured a new congressional map in California favoring Democrats, indicating momentum that raised market expectations for a Democratic sweep.
Nov 4 2025
Democrats sweep key 2025 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, delivering a rebuke to Trump and Republicans and signaling a difficult environment for GOP in 2026
Republicans Sweep drops to 24%12%
Democrats sweep key 2025 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, delivering a rebuke to Trump and Republicans and signaling a difficult environment for GOP in 2026 midterms
Jul 21 2025
Former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell announces he will not seek reelection in 2026, signaling a significant GOP Senate leadership change and raising uncertainty about
R Senate, D House jumps to 54%6%
Former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell announces he will not seek reelection in 2026, signaling a significant GOP Senate leadership change and raising uncertainty about Republican Senate control
Jul 17 2025
Democrats show strong motivation and favorable polling ahead of midterms amid low Republican approval ratings, signaling a potential advantage in 2026 elections
Democrats Sweep plunges to 22%25%
A CNN poll found Democrats deeply motivated for the midterms despite negative views of party leaders, while Republicans faced sharply negative public opinion, suggesting a favorable environment for Democrats despite internal challenges.
Jul 11 2025
Democrats show strong motivation and favorable polling ahead of midterms, with negative perceptions of Republicans and Trump’s declining approval ratings signaling challenges for
Republicans Sweep drops to 23%10%
Democrats show strong motivation and favorable polling ahead of midterms, with negative perceptions of Republicans and Trump’s declining approval ratings signaling challenges for GOP in 2026
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors a Democratic House majority at around 86% implied probability, driven by persistent Democratic leads of 8–10 points on the generic congressional ballot in recent polls from outlets like Marist and Morning Consult, alongside President Trump's approval ratings dipping into the mid-30s amid economic concerns and foreign policy challenges like gas prices and Iran tensions. This aligns with historical midterm patterns where the president's party loses an average of 28 House seats. The Senate remains closely contested, with Republicans defending a 53–47 majority in a map featuring battlegrounds like New Hampshire and competitive open seats; forecasts from Sabato's Crystal Ball and Race to the WH show narrow GOP holds but vulnerability to wave dynamics. Primaries conclude soon, with full campaign intensity ramping post-Labor Day.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Trader consensus favors a Democratic House majority at around 86% implied probability, driven by persistent Democratic leads of 8–10 points on the generic congressional ballot in recent polls from outlets like Marist and Morning Consult, alongside President Trump's approval ratings dipping into the mid-30s amid economic concerns and foreign policy challenges like gas prices and Iran tensions. This aligns with historical midterm patterns where the president's party loses an average of 28 House seats. The Senate remains closely contested, with Republicans defending a 53–47 majority in a map featuring battlegrounds like New Hampshire and competitive open seats; forecasts from Sabato's Crystal Ball and Race to the WH show narrow GOP holds but vulnerability to wave dynamics. Primaries conclude soon, with full campaign intensity ramping post-Labor Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 26 2026
Slight market rebound (+3 points) follows announcements of some GOP candidates entering races and efforts to shore up vulnerable seats, reflecting cautious optimism about GOP
R Senate, D House rises to 39%3%
Slight market rebound (+3 points) follows announcements of some GOP candidates entering races and efforts to shore up vulnerable seats, reflecting cautious optimism about GOP Senate hold despite House losses
Apr 23 2026
Slight market correction to 49% as concerns about Democratic enthusiasm and voter dissatisfaction emerge from AP-NORC and youth polling
Democrats Sweep drops to 49%5%
AP-NORC and University of Chicago polls revealed ongoing dissatisfaction among young voters and some Democrats, tempering enthusiasm and causing a modest
Apr 17 2026
Democrats reach peak market confidence at 54% amid favorable polling and strong fundraising in battleground states
Democrats Sweep rises to 54%3%
Polling aggregators and race ratings showed Democrats with a slight edge in the Senate and House races, supported by fundraising advantages and demographic trends favoring Democrats.
Apr 14 2026
Market trough at 33% coincides with ongoing reports of GOP retirements and Democratic gains in state legislatures, indicating growing market skepticism about GOP Senate retention
R Senate, D House dips to 33%4%
Market trough at 33% coincides with ongoing reports of GOP retirements and Democratic gains in state legislatures, indicating growing market skepticism about GOP Senate retention and House control split
Apr 7 2026
Maine poll shows Democrat Platner leading incumbent Collins by 9 points, reflecting broader Democratic gains in Senate battlegrounds
Democrats Sweep rises to 51%3%
A Maine People’s Resource Center poll revealed a significant Democratic lead in a key Senate race, reinforcing the narrative of Democratic strength in competitive states.
Apr 4 2026
POLITICO reports Republicans losing clout in statehouses with multiple GOP leaders stepping down, reinforcing the narrative of Republican difficulties in 2026 elections
POLITICO reports Republicans losing clout in statehouses with multiple GOP leaders stepping down, reinforcing the narrative of Republican difficulties in 2026 elections
Mar 13 2026
New polls show Democrats expanding their lead in key races and voter enthusiasm, pushing market
Democrats Sweep jumps to 48%7%
Polls from multiple sources including Marist and CNN indicated growing Democratic support and voter confidence, especially among independents and young voters, increasing expectations for a sweep.
Mar 4 2026
Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines announces he will not seek reelection, adding to the wave of GOP Senate retirements and increasing uncertainty about Republican Senate
R Senate, D House dips to 33%4%
Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines announces he will not seek reelection, adding to the wave of GOP Senate retirements and increasing uncertainty about Republican Senate control
Feb 28 2026
Polling and race ratings indicate a highly competitive Senate map with Democrats holding a marginal advantage, raising hopes for Senate control
Democrats Sweep rises to 41%4%
Newsweek analysis highlighted Democrats' opportunities due to GOP retirements and strong candidates in battleground states, making Senate control a realistic goal.
Feb 1 2026
Multiple GOP state legislative leaders resign or retire amid dimming Republican prospects, indicating internal party challenges and weakening GOP position ahead of midterms
Republicans Sweep drops to 14%6%
Multiple GOP state legislative leaders resign or retire amid dimming Republican prospects, indicating internal party challenges and weakening GOP position ahead of midterms
Jan 18 2026
Continued retirements and primary challenges among Republicans, including North Carolina GOP Senate leader Berger’s announced retirement, contribute to concerns about GOP
R Senate, D House drops to 37%7%
Continued retirements and primary challenges among Republicans, including North Carolina GOP Senate leader Berger’s announced retirement, contribute to concerns about GOP organizational strength and fundraising ahead of midterms
Dec 17 2025
Quinnipiac poll reveals historic low 18% approval rating for congressional Democrats but also shows 47% of voters want Democrats to control the House, reflecting Democratic
Republicans Sweep dips to 19%3%
Quinnipiac poll reveals historic low 18% approval rating for congressional Democrats but also shows 47% of voters want Democrats to control the House, reflecting Democratic enthusiasm and Republican struggles
Dec 17 2025
Record number of congressional retirements announced, including 10 senators and 44 House members, with notable GOP retirements such as Rep.
R Senate, D House dips to 42%4%
Marjorie Taylor Greene resigning effective January 5, 2026, amid clashes with Trump and internal party strife; this signals potential weakening of GOP incumbency advantage
Dec 3 2025
Polls show Democrats gaining ground nationally with a 10-point generic ballot lead and strong special election performances, improving midterm prospects
Democrats Sweep jumps to 37%9%
Emerson and Quinnipiac polls reported Democrats holding a double-digit lead over Republicans, supported by special election swings averaging 15 points toward Democrats, signaling increased chances for a sweep.
Nov 10 2025
November 2025 off-year elections see Democrats surge in races nationwide, boosting Democratic momentum ahead of 2026 midterms;
R Senate, D House dips to 51%2%
shortly after, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announces she will not seek another term, indicating generational change in Democratic leadership
Nov 6 2025
Democrats achieve significant wins in 2025 off-year elections including Virginia and New Jersey governor races, boosting confidence for 2026 midterms
Democrats Sweep jumps to 32%10%
Democrats swept major races in key states and secured a new congressional map in California favoring Democrats, indicating momentum that raised market expectations for a Democratic sweep.
Nov 4 2025
Democrats sweep key 2025 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, delivering a rebuke to Trump and Republicans and signaling a difficult environment for GOP in 2026
Republicans Sweep drops to 24%12%
Democrats sweep key 2025 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, delivering a rebuke to Trump and Republicans and signaling a difficult environment for GOP in 2026 midterms
Jul 21 2025
Former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell announces he will not seek reelection in 2026, signaling a significant GOP Senate leadership change and raising uncertainty about
R Senate, D House jumps to 54%6%
Former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell announces he will not seek reelection in 2026, signaling a significant GOP Senate leadership change and raising uncertainty about Republican Senate control
Jul 17 2025
Democrats show strong motivation and favorable polling ahead of midterms amid low Republican approval ratings, signaling a potential advantage in 2026 elections
Democrats Sweep plunges to 22%25%
A CNN poll found Democrats deeply motivated for the midterms despite negative views of party leaders, while Republicans faced sharply negative public opinion, suggesting a favorable environment for Democrats despite internal challenges.
Jul 11 2025
Democrats show strong motivation and favorable polling ahead of midterms, with negative perceptions of Republicans and Trump’s declining approval ratings signaling challenges for
Republicans Sweep drops to 23%10%
Democrats show strong motivation and favorable polling ahead of midterms, with negative perceptions of Republicans and Trump’s declining approval ratings signaling challenges for GOP in 2026
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Demócratas Arrasan" con 49%, seguido de "Título del ítem del grupo: Senado R, Cámara D" con 38%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 49¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 49% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales" ha generado $5.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 11, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales" es "Demócratas Arrasan" con 49%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 49% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Título del ítem del grupo: Senado R, Cámara D" con 38%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $5.9 million operados en “Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 49¢ para "Demócratas Arrasan" en el mercado "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 49% de que "Demócratas Arrasan" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 49¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 51¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Nov 3, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales" tiene una comunidad activa de 155 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "Equilibrio de poder: 2026 Parciales". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes