¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?
$1,722,680 Vol.
$1,722,680 Vol.
7 nov 2028
Gana un 4%
Demócrata
$747,920 Vol.
61%
Republicano
$974,760 Vol.
39%
$1,722,680 Vol.
$1,722,680 Vol.
7 nov 2028
Gana un 4%
Demócrata
$747,920 Vol.
61%
Republicano
$974,760 Vol.
39%
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to capture the White House in the 2028 presidential election, an all-time high reached in mid-April 2026 amid surging betting volume exceeding $1 million. This reflects bets on a strong Democratic bench, with early nominee markets favoring Gavin Newsom (around 29%) and Kamala Harris (recently climbing to 8%), buoyed by April polls showing them leading among youth voters and in head-to-head matchups. Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance (19%), trail due to President Trump's term limits creating an open-seat race, where historical precedents like competitive post-two-term cycles add uncertainty. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in swing states and Electoral College math.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to capture the White House in the 2028 presidential election, an all-time high reached in mid-April 2026 amid surging betting volume exceeding $1 million. This reflects bets on a strong Democratic bench, with early nominee markets favoring Gavin Newsom (around 29%) and Kamala Harris (recently climbing to 8%), buoyed by April polls showing them leading among youth voters and in head-to-head matchups. Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance (19%), trail due to President Trump's term limits creating an open-seat race, where historical precedents like competitive post-two-term cycles add uncertainty. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in swing states and Electoral College math.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 13 2026
Republican support declines amid lack of clear 2028 frontrunner and internal divisions
Republican dips to 39%4%
Republican market share dropped as no dominant candidate emerged and internal party challenges persisted, weakening their 2028 outlook.
Apr 9 2026
Kamala Harris expands book tour and increases public appearances, raising her profile for 2028
Democratic rises to 61%3%
Harris's active book tour and public engagement enhanced her visibility and perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, contributing to the market's Democratic.
Mar 29 2026
Polls show Democratic candidates Buttigieg, Harris, and Newsom leading 2028 primary preferences, with Democrats holding slight edge in generic ballot
Democratic rises to 58%3%
Polling data indicated Democratic frontrunners gaining ground and a narrow Democratic advantage in generic ballots, boosting market confidence in Democrats.
Jan 15 2026
Ken Martin elected chair of the Democratic National Committee, signaling party organizational stability
Martin's election as DNC chair brought leadership continuity and organizational focus to Democrats, supporting their electoral prospects.
Dec 18 2025
Democratic National Committee announces it will not release report on 2024 election failures, seen as benefiting Kamala Harris's standing
The DNC's decision was interpreted as shielding Harris and stabilizing her position as a potential 2028 candidate, maintaining Democratic market strength.
Nov 4 2025
Democrats flip governorship of Virginia and hold New Jersey governorship by large margins
Democratic victories in key gubernatorial races demonstrated electoral momentum and improved party prospects for 2026 and 2028, supporting the market's Democratic rise.
Sep 23 2025
Cory Booker delivers record-length Senate speech criticizing Trump and Elon Musk, raising his profile as a Democratic leader
Booker's high-profile protest speech positioned him as a rising Democratic figure, enhancing perceptions of Democratic leadership and contributing to market confidence.
Aug 2 2025
Democratic leaders including Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom increase fundraising and digital ad spending for 2028 potential runs
Democratic rises to 55%1%
Several Democrats laid groundwork for 2028 campaigns by raising significant funds and expanding digital presence, signaling party strength and energizing the market for Democrats.
Jul 15 2025
Republican National Convention concludes with no clear frontrunner for 2028 GOP nomination
The Republican convention ended without a dominant candidate emerging for 2028, leading to uncertainty and stagnation in Republican market support.
Apr 1 2025
Democratic candidates win special elections in Florida's 1st and 6th congressional districts
Democrats secured victories in two Florida special elections, signaling continued strength in key districts and boosting confidence in the party's electoral prospects for 2026 and beyond.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to capture the White House in the 2028 presidential election, an all-time high reached in mid-April 2026 amid surging betting volume exceeding $1 million. This reflects bets on a strong Democratic bench, with early nominee markets favoring Gavin Newsom (around 29%) and Kamala Harris (recently climbing to 8%), buoyed by April polls showing them leading among youth voters and in head-to-head matchups. Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance (19%), trail due to President Trump's term limits creating an open-seat race, where historical precedents like competitive post-two-term cycles add uncertainty. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in swing states and Electoral College math.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Democrats at 60.5% to capture the White House in the 2028 presidential election, an all-time high reached in mid-April 2026 amid surging betting volume exceeding $1 million. This reflects bets on a strong Democratic bench, with early nominee markets favoring Gavin Newsom (around 29%) and Kamala Harris (recently climbing to 8%), buoyed by April polls showing them leading among youth voters and in head-to-head matchups. Republicans, led by Vice President JD Vance (19%), trail due to President Trump's term limits creating an open-seat race, where historical precedents like competitive post-two-term cycles add uncertainty. Upcoming 2026 midterms loom as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in swing states and Electoral College math.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Apr 13 2026
Republican support declines amid lack of clear 2028 frontrunner and internal divisions
Republican dips to 39%4%
Republican market share dropped as no dominant candidate emerged and internal party challenges persisted, weakening their 2028 outlook.
Apr 9 2026
Kamala Harris expands book tour and increases public appearances, raising her profile for 2028
Democratic rises to 61%3%
Harris's active book tour and public engagement enhanced her visibility and perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, contributing to the market's Democratic.
Mar 29 2026
Polls show Democratic candidates Buttigieg, Harris, and Newsom leading 2028 primary preferences, with Democrats holding slight edge in generic ballot
Democratic rises to 58%3%
Polling data indicated Democratic frontrunners gaining ground and a narrow Democratic advantage in generic ballots, boosting market confidence in Democrats.
Jan 15 2026
Ken Martin elected chair of the Democratic National Committee, signaling party organizational stability
Martin's election as DNC chair brought leadership continuity and organizational focus to Democrats, supporting their electoral prospects.
Dec 18 2025
Democratic National Committee announces it will not release report on 2024 election failures, seen as benefiting Kamala Harris's standing
The DNC's decision was interpreted as shielding Harris and stabilizing her position as a potential 2028 candidate, maintaining Democratic market strength.
Nov 4 2025
Democrats flip governorship of Virginia and hold New Jersey governorship by large margins
Democratic victories in key gubernatorial races demonstrated electoral momentum and improved party prospects for 2026 and 2028, supporting the market's Democratic rise.
Sep 23 2025
Cory Booker delivers record-length Senate speech criticizing Trump and Elon Musk, raising his profile as a Democratic leader
Booker's high-profile protest speech positioned him as a rising Democratic figure, enhancing perceptions of Democratic leadership and contributing to market confidence.
Aug 2 2025
Democratic leaders including Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom increase fundraising and digital ad spending for 2028 potential runs
Democratic rises to 55%1%
Several Democrats laid groundwork for 2028 campaigns by raising significant funds and expanding digital presence, signaling party strength and energizing the market for Democrats.
Jul 15 2025
Republican National Convention concludes with no clear frontrunner for 2028 GOP nomination
The Republican convention ended without a dominant candidate emerging for 2028, leading to uncertainty and stagnation in Republican market support.
Apr 1 2025
Democratic candidates win special elections in Florida's 1st and 6th congressional districts
Democrats secured victories in two Florida special elections, signaling continued strength in key districts and boosting confidence in the party's electoral prospects for 2026 and beyond.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Demócrata" con 61%, seguido de "Republicano" con 39%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 61¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?" ha generado $1.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?" es "Demócrata" con 61%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Republicano" con 39%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $1.7 million operados en “¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 61¢ para "Demócrata" en el mercado "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 61% de que "Demócrata" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 61¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 39¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?" es una predicción a largo plazo con fecha de resolución el Nov 7, 2028, aproximadamente más de 3 años. Los mercados a largo plazo en Polymarket a menudo ven cambios significativos en las probabilidades a medida que los eventos se desarrollan. Puedes operar en cualquier momento o guardar esta página en marcadores.
El mercado "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?" tiene una comunidad activa de 72 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "¿Qué partido gana las elecciones presidenciales de 2028 en EE. UU.?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes