Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 62.5% implied probability for no meteoroid airburst exceeding 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming negligible impact risks from tracked objects—Sentry table lists 2026 potentials like 2013 TP4 at under 0.004% probability with no energy estimates near 5kt. Recent American Meteor Society analysis of Q1 2026 data reveals a statistically significant surge in large fireballs (e.g., 3.9σ excess at 50+ witnesses), linked to enhanced sporadic flux from Anthelion sources and high-declination radiants, including events with sonic booms but sub-kiloton energies like Ohio's March 17 bolide (~0.25kt). No confirmed 5kt+ events yet per CNEOS fireballs, yet the uptick elevates uncertainty for undetected small meteoroids, with odds balancing baseline annual rates (~few percent historically) against ongoing global surveillance updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
Sí
$295,306 Vol.
$295,306 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$295,306 Vol.
$295,306 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 62.5% implied probability for no meteoroid airburst exceeding 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming negligible impact risks from tracked objects—Sentry table lists 2026 potentials like 2013 TP4 at under 0.004% probability with no energy estimates near 5kt. Recent American Meteor Society analysis of Q1 2026 data reveals a statistically significant surge in large fireballs (e.g., 3.9σ excess at 50+ witnesses), linked to enhanced sporadic flux from Anthelion sources and high-declination radiants, including events with sonic booms but sub-kiloton energies like Ohio's March 17 bolide (~0.25kt). No confirmed 5kt+ events yet per CNEOS fireballs, yet the uptick elevates uncertainty for undetected small meteoroids, with odds balancing baseline annual rates (~few percent historically) against ongoing global surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$295,306Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 62.5% implied probability for no meteoroid airburst exceeding 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming negligible impact risks from tracked objects—Sentry table lists 2026 potentials like 2013 TP4 at under 0.004% probability with no energy estimates near 5kt. Recent American Meteor Society analysis of Q1 2026 data reveals a statistically significant surge in large fireballs (e.g., 3.9σ excess at 50+ witnesses), linked to enhanced sporadic flux from Anthelion sources and high-declination radiants, including events with sonic booms but sub-kiloton energies like Ohio's March 17 bolide (~0.25kt). No confirmed 5kt+ events yet per CNEOS fireballs, yet the uptick elevates uncertainty for undetected small meteoroids, with odds balancing baseline annual rates (~few percent historically) against ongoing global surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$295,306Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 62.5% implied probability for no meteoroid airburst exceeding 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming negligible impact risks from tracked objects—Sentry table lists 2026 potentials like 2013 TP4 at under 0.004% probability with no energy estimates near 5kt. Recent American Meteor Society analysis of Q1 2026 data reveals a statistically significant surge in large fireballs (e.g., 3.9σ excess at 50+ witnesses), linked to enhanced sporadic flux from Anthelion sources and high-declination radiants, including events with sonic booms but sub-kiloton energies like Ohio's March 17 bolide (~0.25kt). No confirmed 5kt+ events yet per CNEOS fireballs, yet the uptick elevates uncertainty for undetected small meteoroids, with odds balancing baseline annual rates (~few percent historically) against ongoing global surveillance updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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