Preliminary analyses from Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA indicate April 2026 global surface air temperatures rank as the third-warmest April on record, trailing the peaks set in 2024 and 2025, driving the market's 88% implied probability for this outcome amid ENSO-neutral conditions that tempered warming potential after La Niña's influence. Late-April observations, including near-record sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed anomalies around 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average—warm by historical standards but insufficient to challenge prior El Niño-boosted months. Trader sentiment reflects this data consensus, with minimal support for top-two finishes (under 5% combined) given model baselines and climatological trends. Final NOAA rankings, expected mid-May, could refine this positioning based on complete land-ocean measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Los días 1, 2 y 3 de abril de 2026 son los más calurosos de la historia?
¿Los días 1, 2 y 3 de abril de 2026 son los más calurosos de la historia?
3º más caluroso 87.9%
Segundo más caluroso 4.3%
Cuarto o inferior <1%
El más caluroso <1%
$90,104 Vol.
$90,104 Vol.
10 may 2026
El más caluroso
1%
Segundo más caluroso
4%
3º más caluroso
88%
Cuarto o inferior
1%
3º más caluroso 87.9%
Segundo más caluroso 4.3%
Cuarto o inferior <1%
El más caluroso <1%
$90,104 Vol.
$90,104 Vol.
10 may 2026
El más caluroso
$10,987 Vol.
1%
Segundo más caluroso
$23,891 Vol.
4%
3º más caluroso
$19,016 Vol.
88%
Cuarto o inferior
$36,210 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA indicate April 2026 global surface air temperatures rank as the third-warmest April on record, trailing the peaks set in 2024 and 2025, driving the market's 88% implied probability for this outcome amid ENSO-neutral conditions that tempered warming potential after La Niña's influence. Late-April observations, including near-record sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed anomalies around 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average—warm by historical standards but insufficient to challenge prior El Niño-boosted months. Trader sentiment reflects this data consensus, with minimal support for top-two finishes (under 5% combined) given model baselines and climatological trends. Final NOAA rankings, expected mid-May, could refine this positioning based on complete land-ocean measurements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volumen
$90,104Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary analyses from Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA indicate April 2026 global surface air temperatures rank as the third-warmest April on record, trailing the peaks set in 2024 and 2025, driving the market's 88% implied probability for this outcome amid ENSO-neutral conditions that tempered warming potential after La Niña's influence. Late-April observations, including near-record sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed anomalies around 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average—warm by historical standards but insufficient to challenge prior El Niño-boosted months. Trader sentiment reflects this data consensus, with minimal support for top-two finishes (under 5% combined) given model baselines and climatological trends. Final NOAA rankings, expected mid-May, could refine this positioning based on complete land-ocean measurements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$90,104Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary analyses from Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA indicate April 2026 global surface air temperatures rank as the third-warmest April on record, trailing the peaks set in 2024 and 2025, driving the market's 88% implied probability for this outcome amid ENSO-neutral conditions that tempered warming potential after La Niña's influence. Late-April observations, including near-record sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, confirmed anomalies around 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average—warm by historical standards but insufficient to challenge prior El Niño-boosted months. Trader sentiment reflects this data consensus, with minimal support for top-two finishes (under 5% combined) given model baselines and climatological trends. Final NOAA rankings, expected mid-May, could refine this positioning based on complete land-ocean measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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