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Fed Chair predictions & odds

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Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

99%

Kevin Warsh

$49M Vol.

$635K today

$2M Liq.

91

Ends in 6 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

100%

May 31

$3M Vol.

$264K today

$120K Liq.

52

Ends in 13 days

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

98%

June 30

$1M Vol.

$130K today

$64.2K Liq.

14

Ends in 14 days

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

50%

December 31

$263K Vol.

$66.6K today

$18.0K Liq.

12

Ends in 8 months

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

1%

$206K Vol.

$20.5K Liq.

1

Ends in 14 days

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

94%

May 15–22

$80.3K Vol.

$25.2K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

2%

US Confirms Aliens Exist

$229K Vol.

$21.0K Liq.

3

Ends in 6 months

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

99%

June 30

$34.4K Vol.

$12.1K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

49%

3.75%

$6M Vol.

$272K Liq.

6

Ends in 7 months

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

34%

December 31

$15.6K Vol.

$6.0K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

5%

$87.9K Vol.

$6.7K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

97%

Kevin Cramer

$96.0K Vol.

$17.1K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

8%

$4.6K Vol.

$1.7K Liq.

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

72%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

$109K Vol.

$13.1K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

How many senators will vote for Trump's Fed chair nominee?

31%

No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn

$64.4K Vol.

$4.0K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

6%

$3.5K Vol.

$3.8K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 16 active markets for Fed Chair that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $61.3M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 99% chance to Kevin Warsh. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Fed Chair predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.