Skip to main content

Economy predictions & odds

·
Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

96%

No change

$16M Vol.

$3M today

$1M Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

<1%

$36M Vol.

$1M today

$751K Liq.

3

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

7%

$4M Vol.

$666K today

$417K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Largest Company end of June?

Largest Company end of June?

84%

NVIDIA

$8M Vol.

$618K today

$925K Liq.

79

Ends in 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

57%

0 (0 bps)

$22M Vol.

$449K today

$978K Liq.

60

Ends in 8 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

50%

$2M Vol.

$352K today

$186K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

88%

No change

$5M Vol.

$288K today

$517K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

23%

$5M Vol.

$288K today

$342K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Largest Company end of December 2026?

67%

NVIDIA

$3M Vol.

$273K today

$448K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Largest Company end of April?

Largest Company end of April?

99%

NVIDIA

$15M Vol.

$224K today

$1M Liq.

1

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

1%

Oil Sanction Relief

$4M Vol.

$162K today

$154K Liq.

143

ECB Interest Rates: April 2026

ECB Interest Rates: April 2026

100%

No change

$1M Vol.

$136K today

$1M Liq.

Largest Company end of May?

Largest Company end of May?

89%

NVIDIA

$438K Vol.

$98.5K today

$292K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

46%

December Meeting

$2M Vol.

$75.4K today

$116K Liq.

17

Ends in about 2 months

US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Economy·GDP

US GDP growth in Q1 2026?

100%

2.0–2.5%

$498K Vol.

$69.4K today

$2M Liq.

Will gas hit __ by end of April?
Economy·Gas

Will gas hit __ by end of April?

1%

↓ $3.95

$489K Vol.

$26.0K Liq.

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

18%

September Meeting

$145K Vol.

$7.0K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

2nd largest company end of April?

2nd largest company end of April?

99%

Alphabet

$2M Vol.

$158K Liq.

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

94%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$1M Vol.

$13.4K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

79%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$47.9K Vol.

$7.0K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Economy.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Economy that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed Decision in June?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $126.5M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to No. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Economy predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.