Polymarket traders price a 90% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic activity and absence of acute crisis signals following the FOMC's April 29, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3½–3¾ percent amid an 8–4 vote. Solid GDP growth near 2 percent annually, stable unemployment at 4.3 percent, and March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 underpin this consensus, despite elevated inflation around 3.3 percent fueled by Middle East-driven energy shocks. Forward guidance emphasizes data-dependent adjustments at scheduled meetings like June 16–17, with tail risks from geopolitical uncertainty or softening labor data potentially influencing sentiment but not warranting unscheduled action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$102,848 Vol.
$102,848 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$102,848 Vol.
$102,848 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Polymarket traders price a 90% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic activity and absence of acute crisis signals following the FOMC's April 29, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3½–3¾ percent amid an 8–4 vote. Solid GDP growth near 2 percent annually, stable unemployment at 4.3 percent, and March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 underpin this consensus, despite elevated inflation around 3.3 percent fueled by Middle East-driven energy shocks. Forward guidance emphasizes data-dependent adjustments at scheduled meetings like June 16–17, with tail risks from geopolitical uncertainty or softening labor data potentially influencing sentiment but not warranting unscheduled action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$102,848End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Polymarket traders price a 90% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic activity and absence of acute crisis signals following the FOMC's April 29, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3½–3¾ percent amid an 8–4 vote. Solid GDP growth near 2 percent annually, stable unemployment at 4.3 percent, and March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 underpin this consensus, despite elevated inflation around 3.3 percent fueled by Middle East-driven energy shocks. Forward guidance emphasizes data-dependent adjustments at scheduled meetings like June 16–17, with tail risks from geopolitical uncertainty or softening labor data potentially influencing sentiment but not warranting unscheduled action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$102,848End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 90% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic activity and absence of acute crisis signals following the FOMC's April 29, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3½–3¾ percent amid an 8–4 vote. Solid GDP growth near 2 percent annually, stable unemployment at 4.3 percent, and March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 underpin this consensus, despite elevated inflation around 3.3 percent fueled by Middle East-driven energy shocks. Forward guidance emphasizes data-dependent adjustments at scheduled meetings like June 16–17, with tail risks from geopolitical uncertainty or softening labor data potentially influencing sentiment but not warranting unscheduled action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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