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FOMC predictions & odds

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Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

96%

No change

$15M Vol.

$3M today

$1M Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

88%

No change

$5M Vol.

$354K today

$493K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

18%

September Meeting

$144K Vol.

$7.0K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

79%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$46.7K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

94%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$1M Vol.

$10.8K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed Decision in September?

Fed Decision in September?

73%

No change

$649 Vol.

$58.3K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

47%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$3 Vol.

$4.9K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

41%

3

$0 Vol.

$98 Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

57%

0 (0 bps)

$22M Vol.

$400K today

$976K Liq.

60

Ends in 8 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

46%

December Meeting

$2M Vol.

$63.9K today

$117K Liq.

17

Ends in about 2 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

46%

3.75%

$6M Vol.

$270K Liq.

6

Ends in 7 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

51%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$109K Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

8%

$4.6K Vol.

$1.7K Liq.

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

72%

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%

$109K Vol.

$12.0K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

10%

$103K Vol.

$6.5K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

What price will Bitcoin hit in April?

What price will Bitcoin hit in April?

1%

↑ 80,000

$60M Vol.

$3M today

$2M Liq.

6

Ends in about 12 hours

What will the Bitcoin implied volatility index hit by April 30?

What will the Bitcoin implied volatility index hit by April 30?

2%

↓ 40

$67.1K Vol.

$2.8K Liq.

2

Ends in about 12 hours

What price will Bitcoin hit on April 30?

What price will Bitcoin hit on April 30?

52%

↑ 77,000

$78.5K Vol.

$78.5K today

$167K Liq.

Ends in about 12 hours

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 30?

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on April 30?

99%

$690

$8.6K Vol.

$26.9K Liq.

Ends in about 4 hours

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

50%

Up

$0 Vol.

$20.5K Liq.

Ends in about 7 hours

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 130 active markets for FOMC that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed Decision in June?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $113.7M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “What price will Bitcoin hit in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “What price will Bitcoin hit in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to ↑ 75,000. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on FOMC predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.