China's Defense Ministry announced on January 24, 2026, an investigation into Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and a longtime Xi Jinping ally, for serious violations of discipline and law, amid an intensifying anti-corruption purge in the People's Liberation Army. Subsequent absences from key events and official removals signal his downfall, but as of late April, no formal charges, trial, or sentencing have been disclosed, with insiders indicating expulsion from the Party and military possibly by July, followed by military procuratorate review. Traders price an 87.5% "No" probability reflecting the opaque, protracted nature of high-level CCP cases—often ending in expulsion without public prison sentences—and the tight timeline to December 31, 2026, absent accelerated proceedings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$109,006 Vol.
$109,006 Vol.
$109,006 Vol.
$109,006 Vol.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Zhang Youxia is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...China's Defense Ministry announced on January 24, 2026, an investigation into Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and a longtime Xi Jinping ally, for serious violations of discipline and law, amid an intensifying anti-corruption purge in the People's Liberation Army. Subsequent absences from key events and official removals signal his downfall, but as of late April, no formal charges, trial, or sentencing have been disclosed, with insiders indicating expulsion from the Party and military possibly by July, followed by military procuratorate review. Traders price an 87.5% "No" probability reflecting the opaque, protracted nature of high-level CCP cases—often ending in expulsion without public prison sentences—and the tight timeline to December 31, 2026, absent accelerated proceedings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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