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icon for Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner

Tom Tiffany 91%

Andy Manske 7.8%

Sean Duffy 3.0%

Rebecca Kleefisch 3.0%

Polymarket

$81,627 Vol.

Tom Tiffany 91%

Andy Manske 7.8%

Sean Duffy 3.0%

Rebecca Kleefisch 3.0%

Polymarket

$81,627 Vol.

Tom Tiffany

$6,614 Vol.

91%

Andy Manske

$3,267 Vol.

8%

Sean Duffy

$36,238 Vol.

3%

Rebecca Kleefisch

$4,727 Vol.

3%

Tommy Thompson

$3,422 Vol.

3%

Josh Schoemann

$3,716 Vol.

1%

Eric Hovde

$20,658 Vol.

1%

Tim Michels

$2,987 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial primary stems from President Trump's January 2026 endorsement, which prompted key rival Josh Schoemann's immediate dropout and effectively cleared the field of serious challengers ahead of the August 11 primary. Tiffany, representing rural northern Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District, benefits from incumbency advantages, strong grassroots support among Trump-aligned voters, and recent campaign pushes like ending emissions testing and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime. Minor candidates like Andy Manske trail far behind due to limited name recognition and resources. Upsets could arise from a late high-profile entry, Tiffany scandal, or debate stumbles, though trader consensus sees slim barriers to his nomination.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$81,627
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the Wisconsin Republican gubernatorial primary stems from President Trump's January 2026 endorsement, which prompted key rival Josh Schoemann's immediate dropout and effectively cleared the field of serious challengers ahead of the August 11 primary. Tiffany, representing rural northern Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District, benefits from incumbency advantages, strong grassroots support among Trump-aligned voters, and recent campaign pushes like ending emissions testing and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime. Minor candidates like Andy Manske trail far behind due to limited name recognition and resources. Upsets could arise from a late high-profile entry, Tiffany scandal, or debate stumbles, though trader consensus sees slim barriers to his nomination.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$81,627
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Tiffany" at 91%, followed by "Andy Manske" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $81.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Tom Tiffany" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Andy Manske" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.