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Elections·California Primary

CA-03 Primary Winners

icon for CA-03 Primary Winners
Elections·California Primary

CA-03 Primary Winners

NEW
Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$3,988 Vol.

Polymarket

Ami Bera

$346 Vol.

96%

Robb Tucker

$1,954 Vol.

63%

Chris Bennett

$90 Vol.

29%

Christine Bish

$1,125 Vol.

19%

Heidi Hall

$452 Vol.

17%

Laura Koscki

$21 Vol.

7%

Chris Richardson

$0 Vol.

6%

Lyndon Cervantes

$0 Vol.

4%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California's 3rd Congressional District underwent significant redistricting via Proposition 50, approved last November, transforming it from a rural Republican stronghold held by Kevin Kiley into a more suburban, Democratic-leaning seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Incumbent Ami Bera, shifting from CA-06, leads with superior fundraising—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—positioning him as the top contender in the June 2 top-two primary. Among Democrats, Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall trails but emphasizes rural issues like wildfires and housing; other challengers include Chris Bennett and Lyndon Cervantes. Republicans feature Christine Bish, Laura Koscki, and Robb Tucker, the latter with local supervisor experience. The Sacramento Bee recently endorsed Bera, while sparse primary polling underscores voter turnout and early voting as key factors ahead of the June primary.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$3,988
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.California's 3rd Congressional District underwent significant redistricting via Proposition 50, approved last November, transforming it from a rural Republican stronghold held by Kevin Kiley into a more suburban, Democratic-leaning seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Incumbent Ami Bera, shifting from CA-06, leads with superior fundraising—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—positioning him as the top contender in the June 2 top-two primary. Among Democrats, Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall trails but emphasizes rural issues like wildfires and housing; other challengers include Chris Bennett and Lyndon Cervantes. Republicans feature Christine Bish, Laura Koscki, and Robb Tucker, the latter with local supervisor experience. The Sacramento Bee recently endorsed Bera, while sparse primary polling underscores voter turnout and early voting as key factors ahead of the June primary.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$3,988
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-03 Primary Winners" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ami Bera" at 96%, followed by "Robb Tucker" at 63%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CA-03 Primary Winners" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CA-03 Primary Winners," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-03 Primary Winners" is "Ami Bera" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Robb Tucker" at 63%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-03 Primary Winners" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.