Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers' decision not to seek a third term has opened the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race, with primaries on August 11 and the general election November 3 driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner amid recent generic ballot polling favoring Democrats 50%-43%. A mid-April RMG/Napolitan survey highlights cost-of-living concerns as the top issue for 42% of voters, alongside President Trump's net -22 approval and Sen. Ron Johnson's -12 rating in the state, providing headwinds for Republicans despite Rep. Tom Tiffany's lead in the GOP primary. Early March head-to-head polls showed Tiffany edging Democratic frontrunner Rep. Francesca Hong narrowly, but low voter engagement and Democratic enthusiasm advantages have widened market pricing in Democrats' favor as the crowded fields solidify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWisconsin Governor Election Winner
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
$68,531 Vol.
$68,531 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
81%
Republican
16%
$68,531 Vol.
$68,531 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$11,836 Vol.
81%
Republican
$56,694 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers' decision not to seek a third term has opened the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race, with primaries on August 11 and the general election November 3 driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner amid recent generic ballot polling favoring Democrats 50%-43%. A mid-April RMG/Napolitan survey highlights cost-of-living concerns as the top issue for 42% of voters, alongside President Trump's net -22 approval and Sen. Ron Johnson's -12 rating in the state, providing headwinds for Republicans despite Rep. Tom Tiffany's lead in the GOP primary. Early March head-to-head polls showed Tiffany edging Democratic frontrunner Rep. Francesca Hong narrowly, but low voter engagement and Democratic enthusiasm advantages have widened market pricing in Democrats' favor as the crowded fields solidify.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$68,531End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers' decision not to seek a third term has opened the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race, with primaries on August 11 and the general election November 3 driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner amid recent generic ballot polling favoring Democrats 50%-43%. A mid-April RMG/Napolitan survey highlights cost-of-living concerns as the top issue for 42% of voters, alongside President Trump's net -22 approval and Sen. Ron Johnson's -12 rating in the state, providing headwinds for Republicans despite Rep. Tom Tiffany's lead in the GOP primary. Early March head-to-head polls showed Tiffany edging Democratic frontrunner Rep. Francesca Hong narrowly, but low voter engagement and Democratic enthusiasm advantages have widened market pricing in Democrats' favor as the crowded fields solidify.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$68,531End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers' decision not to seek a third term has opened the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race, with primaries on August 11 and the general election November 3 driving trader consensus to an 80.5% implied probability for a Democratic winner amid recent generic ballot polling favoring Democrats 50%-43%. A mid-April RMG/Napolitan survey highlights cost-of-living concerns as the top issue for 42% of voters, alongside President Trump's net -22 approval and Sen. Ron Johnson's -12 rating in the state, providing headwinds for Republicans despite Rep. Tom Tiffany's lead in the GOP primary. Early March head-to-head polls showed Tiffany edging Democratic frontrunner Rep. Francesca Hong narrowly, but low voter engagement and Democratic enthusiasm advantages have widened market pricing in Democrats' favor as the crowded fields solidify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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