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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

icon for Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$559,020 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$559,020 Vol.

Polymarket

Steve Hilton

$37,118 Vol.

68%

Tom Steyer

$24,829 Vol.

61%

Xavier Becerra

$7,446 Vol.

55%

Chad Bianco

$19,052 Vol.

14%

Katie Porter

$7,666 Vol.

10%

Matt Mahan

$14,779 Vol.

10%

Elaine Culotti

$51 Vol.

5%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$12,098 Vol.

4%

David Thelen

$949 Vol.

4%

Kyle Langford

$10,837 Vol.

3%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 Vol.

3%

Leonard Jackson

$3,331 Vol.

3%

Ramsey Robinson

$3,242 Vol.

3%

Leo Zacky

$1,189 Vol.

2%

Zoltan Istvan

$11,803 Vol.

2%

Jimmy Parker

$0 Vol.

2%

Ian Calderon

$112,194 Vol.

2%

David Serpa

$4,506 Vol.

2%

Dylan Colbert

$13,693 Vol.

2%

Ché Ahn

$17,926 Vol.

2%

Daniel Mercuri

$9,389 Vol.

2%

Nicholas Thompson

$6,848 Vol.

2%

Butch Ware

$8,287 Vol.

2%

Nicki Minaj

$3,178 Vol.

2%

Derek Grasty

$18,287 Vol.

2%

Raji Rab

$2,702 Vol.

2%

Tony Thurmond

$1,590 Vol.

2%

Sophia Brink

$37,819 Vol.

2%

Carolina Buhler

$8,322 Vol.

1%

Ryan Tillman

$1,616 Vol.

1%

Brandon Jones

$36,164 Vol.

1%

Betty Yee

$3,557 Vol.

1%

Ethan Agarwal

$2,642 Vol.

1%

Thunder Parley

$55,213 Vol.

1%

Eric Swalwell

$60,747 Vol.

1%

Javen Allen

$0 Vol.

50%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's top-two jungle primary for governor on June 2, trader consensus reflects a tight contest driven by fragmented Democratic support amid Gavin Newsom's term limits creating an open seat. Recent late-April polls, including Gudeluans Strategies (Becerra 24%, Hilton 23%) and CBS/YouGov (Hilton 16%, Steyer 15%), show Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer, and Chad Bianco clustered near the top, with high undecided rates amplifying volatility. Rep. Eric Swalwell's mid-April exit consolidated some Democratic votes, while April 28 CBS and upcoming May 5 CNN debates spotlighted affordability and low voter turnout risks. Ballots mail May 4, potentially swaying momentum in this historically Democratic state.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$559,020
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's top-two jungle primary for governor on June 2, trader consensus reflects a tight contest driven by fragmented Democratic support amid Gavin Newsom's term limits creating an open seat. Recent late-April polls, including Gudeluans Strategies (Becerra 24%, Hilton 23%) and CBS/YouGov (Hilton 16%, Steyer 15%), show Xavier Becerra, Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer, and Chad Bianco clustered near the top, with high undecided rates amplifying volatility. Rep. Eric Swalwell's mid-April exit consolidated some Democratic votes, while April 28 CBS and upcoming May 5 CNN debates spotlighted affordability and low voter turnout risks. Ballots mail May 4, potentially swaying momentum in this historically Democratic state.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$559,020
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 68%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 61%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $559K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Steve Hilton" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 61%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.