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Politics·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

icon for Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Mandela Barnes 42%

Francesca Hong 36.3%

Sara Rodriguez 12%

Zachary Roper 7.0%

Polymarket

$52,184 Vol.

Mandela Barnes 42%

Francesca Hong 36.3%

Sara Rodriguez 12%

Zachary Roper 7.0%

Polymarket

$52,184 Vol.

Mandela Barnes

$8,792 Vol.

42%

Francesca Hong

$7,591 Vol.

36%

Sara Rodriguez

$9,392 Vol.

12%

Zachary Roper

$1,625 Vol.

7%

Kelda Roys

$2,212 Vol.

4%

David Crowley

$2,927 Vol.

1%

Tom Nelson

$1,615 Vol.

1%

Joel Brennan

$2,142 Vol.

1%

Melissa Agard

$2,178 Vol.

1%

Chris Larson

$8,613 Vol.

8%

Tim Jacobson

$1,771 Vol.

<1%

Brett Hulsey

$1,611 Vol.

<1%

Missy Hughes

$1,715 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes holds a slim trader consensus edge at 42% implied probability over state Rep. Francesca Hong's 36% in the wide-open Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, driven by his statewide name recognition from the 2022 U.S. Senate race and prior executive experience, contrasting Hong's rising progressive profile in a crowded field of over a dozen candidates. The last Marquette Law School Poll in March showed 65% of Democratic primary voters undecided and low overall engagement, with both atop low-single-digit support, keeping odds tight absent new surveys. Hong's April 21 endorsement from Rep. Ilhan Omar amplified her momentum among the left, while Sara Rodriguez trails at 11.5% on current Lt. Gov. incumbency. Separation likely hinges on forthcoming endorsements from Gov. Evers or unions, updated polling averages, fundraising reports, candidate forums, or debates before the August 11 primary, as turnout among key Democratic voting blocs like urban progressives and suburban moderates tips the balance.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$52,184
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes holds a slim trader consensus edge at 42% implied probability over state Rep. Francesca Hong's 36% in the wide-open Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, driven by his statewide name recognition from the 2022 U.S. Senate race and prior executive experience, contrasting Hong's rising progressive profile in a crowded field of over a dozen candidates. The last Marquette Law School Poll in March showed 65% of Democratic primary voters undecided and low overall engagement, with both atop low-single-digit support, keeping odds tight absent new surveys. Hong's April 21 endorsement from Rep. Ilhan Omar amplified her momentum among the left, while Sara Rodriguez trails at 11.5% on current Lt. Gov. incumbency. Separation likely hinges on forthcoming endorsements from Gov. Evers or unions, updated polling averages, fundraising reports, candidate forums, or debates before the August 11 primary, as turnout among key Democratic voting blocs like urban progressives and suburban moderates tips the balance.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$52,184
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mandela Barnes" at 42%, followed by "Francesca Hong" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $52.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" is "Mandela Barnes" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Francesca Hong" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.