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icon for ¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?

¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?

icon for ¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?

¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?

$198,023 Vol.

16 jun 2026
Polymarket

$198,023 Vol.

Polymarket

15 de junio

$76,808 Vol.

23%

22 de junio

$23,779 Vol.

54%

30 de junio

$66,020 Vol.

64%

31 de julio

$32,432 Vol.

82%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran talks have advanced rapidly under Pakistan-mediated efforts following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire. As of mid-June, both sides have converged on draft text for a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, and launch 60 days of follow-on negotiations covering sanctions relief and nuclear limits. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on June 12 that a final agreed text exists, while Iranian officials described an agreement as closer than ever and US sources indicated a possible signing in Switzerland or remotely within days. President Trump has repeatedly signaled progress but emphasized the need for final approvals from both leaderships, including Iran's supreme leader. These developments center trader focus on whether the interim framework is formalized before any resolution deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$198,023
Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran talks have advanced rapidly under Pakistan-mediated efforts following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire. As of mid-June, both sides have converged on draft text for a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, and launch 60 days of follow-on negotiations covering sanctions relief and nuclear limits. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on June 12 that a final agreed text exists, while Iranian officials described an agreement as closer than ever and US sources indicated a possible signing in Switzerland or remotely within days. President Trump has repeatedly signaled progress but emphasized the need for final approvals from both leaderships, including Iran's supreme leader. These developments center trader focus on whether the interim framework is formalized before any resolution deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$198,023
Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de julio" con 82%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 64%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 82¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 82% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?" ha generado $198K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jun 11, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?" es "31 de julio" con 82%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 82% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de junio" con 64%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.