Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polls through late April 2026 solidify trader consensus on the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) as the commanding frontrunner for the September 13 Riksdag election under proportional representation.** Surveys by Demoskop (33%), Indikator (34%), and Ipsos (32%) show S maintaining a 13-15 point lead over Sweden Democrats (19-20%) and Moderates (17-19%), with the red-green bloc (S, Left, Greens, Centre) projected at 52% versus Tidö parties' 46%—enough for a parliamentary majority. This reflects backlash to Prime Minister Kristersson's April 1 announcement opening the door for Sweden Democrats to join a future center-right cabinet, boosting opposition momentum. While S's position appears locked, late-breaking scandals, economic upturns favoring incumbents, or voter turnout surges in key demographics could narrow the gap before resolution based on the party securing the most seats.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
**Recent polls through late April 2026 solidify trader consensus on the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) as the commanding frontrunner for the September 13 Riksdag election under proportional representation.** Surveys by Demoskop (33%), Indikator (34%), and Ipsos (32%) show S maintaining a 13-15 point lead over Sweden Democrats (19-20%) and Moderates (17-19%), with the red-green bloc (S, Left, Greens, Centre) projected at 52% versus Tidö parties' 46%—enough for a parliamentary majority. This reflects backlash to Prime Minister Kristersson's April 1 announcement opening the door for Sweden Democrats to join a future center-right cabinet, boosting opposition momentum. While S's position appears locked, late-breaking scandals, economic upturns favoring incumbents, or voter turnout surges in key demographics could narrow the gap before resolution based on the party securing the most seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 30 2026
Sweden Democrats accused of breaking parliamentary protocol in a key vote, damaging their reputation and reinforcing market skepticism about their political reliability
Sweden Democrats accused of breaking parliamentary protocol in a key vote, damaging their reputation and reinforcing market skepticism about their political reliability
Apr 27 2026
Parliamentary dynamics show Social Democrats as the largest party with 106 MPs supporting key opposition bills, signaling their central role in legislative influence and
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 92%3%
Parliamentary dynamics show Social Democrats as the largest party with 106 MPs supporting key opposition bills, signaling their central role in legislative influence and strengthening market confidence in their election prospects
Apr 1 2026
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson publicly opens the door to including the far-right Sweden Democrats in a future coalition, heightening polarization and boosting left-wing
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 90%3%
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson publicly opens the door to including the far-right Sweden Democrats in a future coalition, heightening polarization and boosting left-wing support for Social Democrats as a counterbalance
Apr 1 2026
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (Moderate Party) publicly states intention to form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if elected, clarifying coalition plans
Moderate Party (M) dips to 3%3%
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (Moderate Party) publicly states intention to form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if elected, clarifying coalition plans but triggering voter concerns about stability and far-right influence
Mar 16 2026
Social Democrats recover some support after the initial shock of the Liberals-Sweden Democrats agreement, as opposition parties unify and reaffirm their positions against
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 93%4%
Social Democrats recover some support after the initial shock of the Liberals-Sweden Democrats agreement, as opposition parties unify and reaffirm their positions against far-right influence
Mar 13 2026
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce "The Sweden Promise" agreement removing red lines against Sweden Democrats in a future coalition, signaling stronger right-wing bloc unity
Moderate Party (M) rises to 6%2%
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce "The Sweden Promise" agreement removing red lines against Sweden Democrats in a future coalition, signaling stronger right-wing bloc unity but complicating Moderate Party's centrist appeal
Mar 13 2026
Polls show a slight dip in Social Democrats' support around mid-March, coinciding with political uncertainty as the Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce a cooperation agreement
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) dips to 89%4%
Polls show a slight dip in Social Democrats' support around mid-March, coinciding with political uncertainty as the Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce a cooperation agreement removing previous red lines against SD, potentially threatening the left bloc
Mar 13 2026
Sweden Democrats and Liberals announce "The Sweden Promise" agreement removing red lines against SD in government, but this deal triggers voter backlash and concerns about
Sweden Democrats (SD) rises to 5%2%
Sweden Democrats and Liberals announce "The Sweden Promise" agreement removing red lines against SD in government, but this deal triggers voter backlash and concerns about stability, limiting SD’s market recovery
Feb 3 2026
Sweden Democrats’ parliamentary group shrinks after two MPs resign amid scandals and defections, weakening party strength and contributing to a market drop to 2%
Sweden Democrats (SD) drops to 2%5%
Sweden Democrats’ parliamentary group shrinks after two MPs resign amid scandals and defections, weakening party strength and contributing to a market drop to 2%
Jan 29 2026
Latest Ipsos poll confirms Social Democrats firmly in the lead with 34% support, while Sweden Democrats drop slightly to 21%, consolidating Social Democrats' perceived electoral
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 92%3%
Latest Ipsos poll confirms Social Democrats firmly in the lead with 34% support, while Sweden Democrats drop slightly to 21%, consolidating Social Democrats' perceived electoral strength
Dec 16 2025
Sweden enacts stricter citizenship and immigration reforms influenced by Sweden Democrats’ policy agenda, polarizing public opinion and reinforcing a December slump in SD support
Sweden Democrats (SD) dips to 7%4%
Sweden enacts stricter citizenship and immigration reforms influenced by Sweden Democrats’ policy agenda, polarizing public opinion and reinforcing a December slump in SD support in polls
Dec 14 2025
Ipsos poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 34%, ahead of Sverigedemokraterna at 22% and Moderaterna at 18%, reinforcing the Social Democrats' frontrunner status in the
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) jumps to 87%7%
Ipsos poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 34%, ahead of Sverigedemokraterna at 22% and Moderaterna at 18%, reinforcing the Social Democrats' frontrunner status in the election race
Dec 14 2025
Ipsos poll shows Sweden Democrats at 22%, trailing Social Democrats at 34%, indicating early market optimism but also a clear lead for the opposition
Sweden Democrats (SD) drops to 11%11%
Ipsos poll shows Sweden Democrats at 22%, trailing Social Democrats at 34%, indicating early market optimism but also a clear lead for the opposition
Dec 4 2025
Ipsos and Demoskop polls confirm Moderate Party support at around 17-18%, well behind Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats, sparking a sharp sell-off of the Moderate Party (M)
Moderate Party (M) plunges to 3%18%
Ipsos and Demoskop polls confirm Moderate Party support at around 17-18%, well behind Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats, sparking a sharp sell-off of the Moderate Party (M) outcome in the prediction market
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polls through late April 2026 solidify trader consensus on the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) as the commanding frontrunner for the September 13 Riksdag election under proportional representation.** Surveys by Demoskop (33%), Indikator (34%), and Ipsos (32%) show S maintaining a 13-15 point lead over Sweden Democrats (19-20%) and Moderates (17-19%), with the red-green bloc (S, Left, Greens, Centre) projected at 52% versus Tidö parties' 46%—enough for a parliamentary majority. This reflects backlash to Prime Minister Kristersson's April 1 announcement opening the door for Sweden Democrats to join a future center-right cabinet, boosting opposition momentum. While S's position appears locked, late-breaking scandals, economic upturns favoring incumbents, or voter turnout surges in key demographics could narrow the gap before resolution based on the party securing the most seats.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
**Recent polls through late April 2026 solidify trader consensus on the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) as the commanding frontrunner for the September 13 Riksdag election under proportional representation.** Surveys by Demoskop (33%), Indikator (34%), and Ipsos (32%) show S maintaining a 13-15 point lead over Sweden Democrats (19-20%) and Moderates (17-19%), with the red-green bloc (S, Left, Greens, Centre) projected at 52% versus Tidö parties' 46%—enough for a parliamentary majority. This reflects backlash to Prime Minister Kristersson's April 1 announcement opening the door for Sweden Democrats to join a future center-right cabinet, boosting opposition momentum. While S's position appears locked, late-breaking scandals, economic upturns favoring incumbents, or voter turnout surges in key demographics could narrow the gap before resolution based on the party securing the most seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 30 2026
Sweden Democrats accused of breaking parliamentary protocol in a key vote, damaging their reputation and reinforcing market skepticism about their political reliability
Sweden Democrats accused of breaking parliamentary protocol in a key vote, damaging their reputation and reinforcing market skepticism about their political reliability
Apr 27 2026
Parliamentary dynamics show Social Democrats as the largest party with 106 MPs supporting key opposition bills, signaling their central role in legislative influence and
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 92%3%
Parliamentary dynamics show Social Democrats as the largest party with 106 MPs supporting key opposition bills, signaling their central role in legislative influence and strengthening market confidence in their election prospects
Apr 1 2026
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson publicly opens the door to including the far-right Sweden Democrats in a future coalition, heightening polarization and boosting left-wing
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 90%3%
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson publicly opens the door to including the far-right Sweden Democrats in a future coalition, heightening polarization and boosting left-wing support for Social Democrats as a counterbalance
Apr 1 2026
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (Moderate Party) publicly states intention to form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if elected, clarifying coalition plans
Moderate Party (M) dips to 3%3%
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (Moderate Party) publicly states intention to form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if elected, clarifying coalition plans but triggering voter concerns about stability and far-right influence
Mar 16 2026
Social Democrats recover some support after the initial shock of the Liberals-Sweden Democrats agreement, as opposition parties unify and reaffirm their positions against
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 93%4%
Social Democrats recover some support after the initial shock of the Liberals-Sweden Democrats agreement, as opposition parties unify and reaffirm their positions against far-right influence
Mar 13 2026
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce "The Sweden Promise" agreement removing red lines against Sweden Democrats in a future coalition, signaling stronger right-wing bloc unity
Moderate Party (M) rises to 6%2%
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce "The Sweden Promise" agreement removing red lines against Sweden Democrats in a future coalition, signaling stronger right-wing bloc unity but complicating Moderate Party's centrist appeal
Mar 13 2026
Polls show a slight dip in Social Democrats' support around mid-March, coinciding with political uncertainty as the Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce a cooperation agreement
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) dips to 89%4%
Polls show a slight dip in Social Democrats' support around mid-March, coinciding with political uncertainty as the Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce a cooperation agreement removing previous red lines against SD, potentially threatening the left bloc
Mar 13 2026
Sweden Democrats and Liberals announce "The Sweden Promise" agreement removing red lines against SD in government, but this deal triggers voter backlash and concerns about
Sweden Democrats (SD) rises to 5%2%
Sweden Democrats and Liberals announce "The Sweden Promise" agreement removing red lines against SD in government, but this deal triggers voter backlash and concerns about stability, limiting SD’s market recovery
Feb 3 2026
Sweden Democrats’ parliamentary group shrinks after two MPs resign amid scandals and defections, weakening party strength and contributing to a market drop to 2%
Sweden Democrats (SD) drops to 2%5%
Sweden Democrats’ parliamentary group shrinks after two MPs resign amid scandals and defections, weakening party strength and contributing to a market drop to 2%
Jan 29 2026
Latest Ipsos poll confirms Social Democrats firmly in the lead with 34% support, while Sweden Democrats drop slightly to 21%, consolidating Social Democrats' perceived electoral
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 92%3%
Latest Ipsos poll confirms Social Democrats firmly in the lead with 34% support, while Sweden Democrats drop slightly to 21%, consolidating Social Democrats' perceived electoral strength
Dec 16 2025
Sweden enacts stricter citizenship and immigration reforms influenced by Sweden Democrats’ policy agenda, polarizing public opinion and reinforcing a December slump in SD support
Sweden Democrats (SD) dips to 7%4%
Sweden enacts stricter citizenship and immigration reforms influenced by Sweden Democrats’ policy agenda, polarizing public opinion and reinforcing a December slump in SD support in polls
Dec 14 2025
Ipsos poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 34%, ahead of Sverigedemokraterna at 22% and Moderaterna at 18%, reinforcing the Social Democrats' frontrunner status in the
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) jumps to 87%7%
Ipsos poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 34%, ahead of Sverigedemokraterna at 22% and Moderaterna at 18%, reinforcing the Social Democrats' frontrunner status in the election race
Dec 14 2025
Ipsos poll shows Sweden Democrats at 22%, trailing Social Democrats at 34%, indicating early market optimism but also a clear lead for the opposition
Sweden Democrats (SD) drops to 11%11%
Ipsos poll shows Sweden Democrats at 22%, trailing Social Democrats at 34%, indicating early market optimism but also a clear lead for the opposition
Dec 4 2025
Ipsos and Demoskop polls confirm Moderate Party support at around 17-18%, well behind Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats, sparking a sharp sell-off of the Moderate Party (M)
Moderate Party (M) plunges to 3%18%
Ipsos and Demoskop polls confirm Moderate Party support at around 17-18%, well behind Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats, sparking a sharp sell-off of the Moderate Party (M) outcome in the prediction market
"Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 91%, followed by "Sweden Democrats (SD)" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sweden Democrats (SD)" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.1 million traded on “Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 91¢ for "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" in the "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 91% chance that "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 91¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 9¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 13, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" market has a growing discussion of 8 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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