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Politics·Midterms

Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

icon for Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?
Politics·Midterms

Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

70% chance
Polymarket
NEW
70% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Virginia voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment which, if passed, would establish a constitutional right to reproductive freedom in the state. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom constitutional amendment passes according to Virginia election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If this constitutional amendment is removed from the November 3, 2026 ballot in Virginia, this market will resolve immediately to “No.” If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, specifically the Virginia Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/results/).The Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment, placed on the November 3, 2026 ballot after party-line votes in the General Assembly's January 2026 session, reflects trader consensus at 53.5% passage probability due to stark partisan splits despite January Wason Center polling showing 66% overall support (91% Democrats, 33% Republicans, 64% independents). Recent opposition surges, including the April 22 Virginia March for Life rally protesting perceived lack of limits on late-term abortion and parental consent, alongside a March lawsuit by Bedford County Supervisor Charla Bansley alleging procedural flaws, have narrowed perceived margins. Competitive balance hinges on swing voter turnout in this battleground state and framing around reproductive health protections versus regulatory concerns; new polls, court rulings, or ad campaigns could decisively shift odds.

Virginia voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment which, if passed, would establish a constitutional right to reproductive freedom in the state.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom constitutional amendment passes according to Virginia election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If this constitutional amendment is removed from the November 3, 2026 ballot in Virginia, this market will resolve immediately to “No.”

If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, specifically the Virginia Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/results/).
Volume
$54
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Virginia voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment which, if passed, would establish a constitutional right to reproductive freedom in the state. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom constitutional amendment passes according to Virginia election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If this constitutional amendment is removed from the November 3, 2026 ballot in Virginia, this market will resolve immediately to “No.” If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, specifically the Virginia Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/results/).
Virginia voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment which, if passed, would establish a constitutional right to reproductive freedom in the state. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom constitutional amendment passes according to Virginia election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If this constitutional amendment is removed from the November 3, 2026 ballot in Virginia, this market will resolve immediately to “No.” If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, specifically the Virginia Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/results/).The Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment, placed on the November 3, 2026 ballot after party-line votes in the General Assembly's January 2026 session, reflects trader consensus at 53.5% passage probability due to stark partisan splits despite January Wason Center polling showing 66% overall support (91% Democrats, 33% Republicans, 64% independents). Recent opposition surges, including the April 22 Virginia March for Life rally protesting perceived lack of limits on late-term abortion and parental consent, alongside a March lawsuit by Bedford County Supervisor Charla Bansley alleging procedural flaws, have narrowed perceived margins. Competitive balance hinges on swing voter turnout in this battleground state and framing around reproductive health protections versus regulatory concerns; new polls, court rulings, or ad campaigns could decisively shift odds.

Virginia voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment which, if passed, would establish a constitutional right to reproductive freedom in the state.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom constitutional amendment passes according to Virginia election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If this constitutional amendment is removed from the November 3, 2026 ballot in Virginia, this market will resolve immediately to “No.”

If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, specifically the Virginia Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/results/).
Volume
$54
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Virginia voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment which, if passed, would establish a constitutional right to reproductive freedom in the state. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom constitutional amendment passes according to Virginia election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If this constitutional amendment is removed from the November 3, 2026 ballot in Virginia, this market will resolve immediately to “No.” If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the Commonwealth of Virginia, specifically the Virginia Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/results/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 70% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 70¢, the market collectively assigns a 70% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

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The current probability for "Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?" is 70% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 70% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

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