Trader consensus prices "No" at 79.5% for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war that began in February 2026 with decapitation strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders. New leader Mojtaba Khamenei and hardline successors like IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated power, maintaining control via Basij forces, near-daily executions of dissidents, and pro-regime rallies despite economic collapse from the U.S. naval blockade depleting oil reserves. January 2026 protests were brutally suppressed with thousands killed, and recent April 28 negotiations show Tehran rejecting nuclear concessions while leveraging Strait of Hormuz access, underscoring no imminent threats to regime survival per U.S. intelligence assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$16,223,982 Vol.
$16,223,982 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,223,982 Vol.
$16,223,982 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 79.5% for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war that began in February 2026 with decapitation strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders. New leader Mojtaba Khamenei and hardline successors like IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated power, maintaining control via Basij forces, near-daily executions of dissidents, and pro-regime rallies despite economic collapse from the U.S. naval blockade depleting oil reserves. January 2026 protests were brutally suppressed with thousands killed, and recent April 28 negotiations show Tehran rejecting nuclear concessions while leveraging Strait of Hormuz access, underscoring no imminent threats to regime survival per U.S. intelligence assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$16,223,982End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 79.5% for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war that began in February 2026 with decapitation strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders. New leader Mojtaba Khamenei and hardline successors like IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated power, maintaining control via Basij forces, near-daily executions of dissidents, and pro-regime rallies despite economic collapse from the U.S. naval blockade depleting oil reserves. January 2026 protests were brutally suppressed with thousands killed, and recent April 28 negotiations show Tehran rejecting nuclear concessions while leveraging Strait of Hormuz access, underscoring no imminent threats to regime survival per U.S. intelligence assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$16,223,982End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 79.5% for the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its institutional resilience amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war that began in February 2026 with decapitation strikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders. New leader Mojtaba Khamenei and hardline successors like IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated power, maintaining control via Basij forces, near-daily executions of dissidents, and pro-regime rallies despite economic collapse from the U.S. naval blockade depleting oil reserves. January 2026 protests were brutally suppressed with thousands killed, and recent April 28 negotiations show Tehran rejecting nuclear concessions while leveraging Strait of Hormuz access, underscoring no imminent threats to regime survival per U.S. intelligence assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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