**Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war, leadership losses, and domestic protests.** U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, yet the Islamic Republic rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, maintained IRGC cohesion, and suppressed widespread protests through arrests and force. U.S. intelligence assessments in March concluded the government remained intact and retained public control, with no imminent collapse indicators. As of mid-June 2026, core institutions continue functioning, ceasefire or negotiation talks are underway, and the roughly six-month window to year-end offers limited scope for rapid regime change absent a major new catalyst. Historical patterns of regime endurance under pressure further support the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,136,872 Vol.
$20,136,872 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$20,136,872 Vol.
$20,136,872 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war, leadership losses, and domestic protests.**
U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, yet the Islamic Republic rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, maintained IRGC cohesion, and suppressed widespread protests through arrests and force. U.S. intelligence assessments in March concluded the government remained intact and retained public control, with no imminent collapse indicators. As of mid-June 2026, core institutions continue functioning, ceasefire or negotiation talks are underway, and the roughly six-month window to year-end offers limited scope for rapid regime change absent a major new catalyst. Historical patterns of regime endurance under pressure further support the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$20,136,872End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war, leadership losses, and domestic protests.**
U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, yet the Islamic Republic rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, maintained IRGC cohesion, and suppressed widespread protests through arrests and force. U.S. intelligence assessments in March concluded the government remained intact and retained public control, with no imminent collapse indicators. As of mid-June 2026, core institutions continue functioning, ceasefire or negotiation talks are underway, and the roughly six-month window to year-end offers limited scope for rapid regime change absent a major new catalyst. Historical patterns of regime endurance under pressure further support the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,136,886End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war, leadership losses, and domestic protests.** U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning February 28 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, yet the Islamic Republic rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, maintained IRGC cohesion, and suppressed widespread protests through arrests and force. U.S. intelligence assessments in March concluded the government remained intact and retained public control, with no imminent collapse indicators. As of mid-June 2026, core institutions continue functioning, ceasefire or negotiation talks are underway, and the roughly six-month window to year-end offers limited scope for rapid regime change absent a major new catalyst. Historical patterns of regime endurance under pressure further support the current trader consensus reflected in the odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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