Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed the military in late May 2026 to expand control over 70 percent of Gaza, well beyond the demarcation line established in the October 2025 U.S.-brokered ceasefire that left Israeli forces holding about 53 percent. This move has involved extending earth berms, demolitions, and incremental ground advances, accompanied by airstrikes that have killed dozens since early June while Cairo-hosted talks seek to advance the truce into its next phase. Hamas leadership losses from targeted strikes in May have coincided with these developments, yet the ceasefire framework remains formally in place amid mutual accusations of violations and stalled progress on disarmament and governance issues. Traders assessing the likelihood of a major new ground offensive will monitor further territorial expansions, diplomatic signals from Washington, and any escalation in clashes that could shift the current equilibrium before key deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$633,359 Vol.
Oct 31, 2025
June 30
4%
December 31
34%
$633,359 Vol.
June 30
$113,463 Vol.
4%
December 31
$43,153 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed the military in late May 2026 to expand control over 70 percent of Gaza, well beyond the demarcation line established in the October 2025 U.S.-brokered ceasefire that left Israeli forces holding about 53 percent. This move has involved extending earth berms, demolitions, and incremental ground advances, accompanied by airstrikes that have killed dozens since early June while Cairo-hosted talks seek to advance the truce into its next phase. Hamas leadership losses from targeted strikes in May have coincided with these developments, yet the ceasefire framework remains formally in place amid mutual accusations of violations and stalled progress on disarmament and governance issues. Traders assessing the likelihood of a major new ground offensive will monitor further territorial expansions, diplomatic signals from Washington, and any escalation in clashes that could shift the current equilibrium before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Volume
$633,359End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed the military in late May 2026 to expand control over 70 percent of Gaza, well beyond the demarcation line established in the October 2025 U.S.-brokered ceasefire that left Israeli forces holding about 53 percent. This move has involved extending earth berms, demolitions, and incremental ground advances, accompanied by airstrikes that have killed dozens since early June while Cairo-hosted talks seek to advance the truce into its next phase. Hamas leadership losses from targeted strikes in May have coincided with these developments, yet the ceasefire framework remains formally in place amid mutual accusations of violations and stalled progress on disarmament and governance issues. Traders assessing the likelihood of a major new ground offensive will monitor further territorial expansions, diplomatic signals from Washington, and any escalation in clashes that could shift the current equilibrium before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$633,359End Date
Dec 31, 2025Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed the military in late May 2026 to expand control over 70 percent of Gaza, well beyond the demarcation line established in the October 2025 U.S.-brokered ceasefire that left Israeli forces holding about 53 percent. This move has involved extending earth berms, demolitions, and incremental ground advances, accompanied by airstrikes that have killed dozens since early June while Cairo-hosted talks seek to advance the truce into its next phase. Hamas leadership losses from targeted strikes in May have coincided with these developments, yet the ceasefire framework remains formally in place amid mutual accusations of violations and stalled progress on disarmament and governance issues. Traders assessing the likelihood of a major new ground offensive will monitor further territorial expansions, diplomatic signals from Washington, and any escalation in clashes that could shift the current equilibrium before key deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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