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Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$214,429 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$214,429 Vol.

Polymarket

Donald Brodie

$0 Vol.

50%

Matt Gaetz

$37 Vol.

49%

Daniel Penny

$11 Vol.

49%

Stefan Brodie

$0 Vol.

49%

Keonne Rodriguez

$9,357 Vol.

28%

Ryan Salame

$15,196 Vol.

21%

Eric Adams

$81 Vol.

26%

Roger Ver

$0 Vol.

14%

Steve Bannon

$6,153 Vol.

19%

Young Thug

$4,211 Vol.

15%

Julian Assange

$1,521 Vol.

8%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$12,636 Vol.

10%

Nicolas Maduro

$6,409 Vol.

10%

Derek Chauvin

$18,294 Vol.

9%

Do Kwon

$16,273 Vol.

9%

Joe Exotic

$330 Vol.

8%

Elizabeth Holmes

$1,016 Vol.

8%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$35,655 Vol.

7%

Martin Shkreli

$22,433 Vol.

7%

Diddy

$7,521 Vol.

6%

Edward Snowden

$1,755 Vol.

10%

Elon Musk

$49,478 Vol.

4%

Antoine Massey

$0 Vol.

7%

Hunter Biden

$2,046 Vol.

3%

Himself

$3,958 Vol.

10%

Roger Stone

$0 Vol.

48%

Bob Menendez

$58 Vol.

43%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Donald Trump has issued over 1,600 pardons and commutations since the start of his second term in January 2025, including a sweeping early grant of clemency to nearly 1,500 January 6 Capitol riot defendants and dozens of white-collar offenders convicted of fraud, money laundering, and related crimes. Recent April reports highlight a burgeoning "pardon economy" involving lobbyists securing grants for wealthy donors and political allies, with DOJ records showing continued grants into February 2026. Trader consensus reflects expectations of further high-profile pardons before the 2027 cutoff, potentially accelerating amid 2026 midterm elections in November that could shift congressional oversight dynamics on executive clemency. No major announcements in the past week, but historical patterns suggest ad hoc White House decisions bypassing traditional DOJ review.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$214,429
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Donald Trump has issued over 1,600 pardons and commutations since the start of his second term in January 2025, including a sweeping early grant of clemency to nearly 1,500 January 6 Capitol riot defendants and dozens of white-collar offenders convicted of fraud, money laundering, and related crimes. Recent April reports highlight a burgeoning "pardon economy" involving lobbyists securing grants for wealthy donors and political allies, with DOJ records showing continued grants into February 2026. Trader consensus reflects expectations of further high-profile pardons before the 2027 cutoff, potentially accelerating amid 2026 midterm elections in November that could shift congressional oversight dynamics on executive clemency. No major announcements in the past week, but historical patterns suggest ad hoc White House decisions bypassing traditional DOJ review.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$214,429
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Donald Brodie" at 50%, followed by "Matt Gaetz" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $214.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Donald Brodie" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Gaetz" at 49%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.