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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

icon for Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$558,153 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$558,153 Vol.

Polymarket

Steve Hilton

$37,074 Vol.

69%

Tom Steyer

$24,818 Vol.

60%

Xavier Becerra

$7,446 Vol.

50%

Chad Bianco

$19,052 Vol.

15%

Matt Mahan

$14,753 Vol.

11%

Katie Porter

$7,666 Vol.

9%

Elaine Culotti

$51 Vol.

5%

David Thelen

$949 Vol.

4%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$12,098 Vol.

3%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 Vol.

3%

Leonard Jackson

$3,331 Vol.

3%

Ramsey Robinson

$3,242 Vol.

3%

Kyle Langford

$10,837 Vol.

3%

Jimmy Parker

$0 Vol.

2%

Leo Zacky

$1,189 Vol.

2%

Zoltan Istvan

$11,803 Vol.

2%

David Serpa

$4,506 Vol.

2%

Ian Calderon

$112,194 Vol.

2%

Dylan Colbert

$13,693 Vol.

2%

Ché Ahn

$17,926 Vol.

2%

Nicki Minaj

$3,178 Vol.

2%

Daniel Mercuri

$9,389 Vol.

2%

Nicholas Thompson

$6,848 Vol.

2%

Butch Ware

$8,287 Vol.

2%

Derek Grasty

$18,287 Vol.

2%

Tony Thurmond

$1,590 Vol.

2%

Raji Rab

$2,702 Vol.

2%

Sophia Brink

$37,819 Vol.

2%

Carolina Buhler

$8,322 Vol.

1%

Ryan Tillman

$1,616 Vol.

1%

Brandon Jones

$36,093 Vol.

1%

Betty Yee

$3,557 Vol.

1%

Ethan Agarwal

$2,642 Vol.

1%

Eric Swalwell

$60,747 Vol.

1%

Thunder Parley

$54,486 Vol.

1%

Javen Allen

$0 Vol.

50%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.California's June 2, 2026, top-two gubernatorial primary remains wide open with over 60 candidates, as recent polls show Republican Steve Hilton (18%) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (13%) leading amid a splintered Democratic field including Xavier Becerra (13%), Tom Steyer (15%), and Katie Porter (10%). President Trump's April 6 endorsement propelled Hilton, while Eric Swalwell's April 12 withdrawal amid allegations and Betty Yee's April 20 suspension—endorsing Steyer—shifted Democratic dynamics without clear consolidation. The April 28 CBS debate spotlighted affordability and crime as top voter concerns, with 20-25% undecided; trader sentiment hinges on turnout, late endorsements, and mail ballots mailing soon, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance in deep-blue California for the first time in decades.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$558,153
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.California's June 2, 2026, top-two gubernatorial primary remains wide open with over 60 candidates, as recent polls show Republican Steve Hilton (18%) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (13%) leading amid a splintered Democratic field including Xavier Becerra (13%), Tom Steyer (15%), and Katie Porter (10%). President Trump's April 6 endorsement propelled Hilton, while Eric Swalwell's April 12 withdrawal amid allegations and Betty Yee's April 20 suspension—endorsing Steyer—shifted Democratic dynamics without clear consolidation. The April 28 CBS debate spotlighted affordability and crime as top voter concerns, with 20-25% undecided; trader sentiment hinges on turnout, late endorsements, and mail ballots mailing soon, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance in deep-blue California for the first time in decades.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$558,153
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 69%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 60%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $558.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Steve Hilton" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 60%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.