Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #2 AI model spot on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On) as of April 30, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking (1503 Elo) at #1 and Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking (1502 Elo) solidly at #2. Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release around mid-April propelled these large language models to dominate the top four positions, excelling in substance-focused evaluations that neutralize verbosity and formatting biases under Style Control. This reflects superior reasoning and instruction-following capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview. With resolution at 12:00 PM ET today, a realistic challenge would require massive last-minute user battles elevating a rival model into the top two, though leaderboard stability since April 28 suggests minimal risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$84,113 Vol.
$84,113 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
100%
xAI
<1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meta
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 100.0%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$84,113 Vol.
$84,113 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$33,469 Vol.
100%
xAI
$3,023 Vol.
<1%
$5,571 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$11,108 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$5,844 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,483 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$3,198 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$1,865 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$2,040 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,943 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,417 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,245 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,948 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$3,793 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$217 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #2 AI model spot on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On) as of April 30, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking (1503 Elo) at #1 and Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking (1502 Elo) solidly at #2. Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release around mid-April propelled these large language models to dominate the top four positions, excelling in substance-focused evaluations that neutralize verbosity and formatting biases under Style Control. This reflects superior reasoning and instruction-following capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview. With resolution at 12:00 PM ET today, a realistic challenge would require massive last-minute user battles elevating a rival model into the top two, though leaderboard stability since April 28 suggests minimal risk.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Volume
$84,113End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #2 AI model spot on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On) as of April 30, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking (1503 Elo) at #1 and Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking (1502 Elo) solidly at #2. Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release around mid-April propelled these large language models to dominate the top four positions, excelling in substance-focused evaluations that neutralize verbosity and formatting biases under Style Control. This reflects superior reasoning and instruction-following capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview. With resolution at 12:00 PM ET today, a realistic challenge would require massive last-minute user battles elevating a rival model into the top two, though leaderboard stability since April 28 suggests minimal risk.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$84,113End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to Anthropic holding the #2 AI model spot on the lmarena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard (Style Control On) as of April 30, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking (1503 Elo) at #1 and Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking (1502 Elo) solidly at #2. Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 4.7 release around mid-April propelled these large language models to dominate the top four positions, excelling in substance-focused evaluations that neutralize verbosity and formatting biases under Style Control. This reflects superior reasoning and instruction-following capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview. With resolution at 12:00 PM ET today, a realistic challenge would require massive last-minute user battles elevating a rival model into the top two, though leaderboard stability since April 28 suggests minimal risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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