With the Senedd election one week away on May 7, trader consensus prices Plaid Cymru at a 72.5% implied probability to secure the most seats under the new 96-member proportional representation system across 16 constituencies, well ahead of Reform UK at 27.5%, while Welsh Labour and others languish below 1% amid the incumbent party's historic collapse to around 15% vote share after 27 years governing. A fresh Survation poll for Aberystwyth University places Reform narrowly ahead at 30%-28% in voting intention, tightening the two-horse race, but MRP projections like YouGov's late-April model continue favoring Plaid's seat efficiency in key regions. Plaid's leader has cast the contest as a direct clash of national visions, with no late campaign shocks reported.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWales Parliamentary Election Winner
Wales Parliamentary Election Winner
Plaid Cymru 73%
Reform UK 27.5%
Welsh Labour <1%
Welsh Conservatives <1%
$111,605 Vol.
$111,605 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Plaid Cymru
73%
Reform UK
27%
Welsh Labour
<1%
Welsh Conservatives
<1%
Welsh Liberal Democrats
<1%
Welsh Green Party
<1%
Plaid Cymru 73%
Reform UK 27.5%
Welsh Labour <1%
Welsh Conservatives <1%
$111,605 Vol.
$111,605 Vol.
May 7, 2026
Plaid Cymru
$31,166 Vol.
73%
Reform UK
$14,566 Vol.
27%
Welsh Labour
$27,336 Vol.
<1%
Welsh Conservatives
$23,744 Vol.
<1%
Welsh Liberal Democrats
$6,832 Vol.
<1%
Welsh Green Party
$7,962 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).With the Senedd election one week away on May 7, trader consensus prices Plaid Cymru at a 72.5% implied probability to secure the most seats under the new 96-member proportional representation system across 16 constituencies, well ahead of Reform UK at 27.5%, while Welsh Labour and others languish below 1% amid the incumbent party's historic collapse to around 15% vote share after 27 years governing. A fresh Survation poll for Aberystwyth University places Reform narrowly ahead at 30%-28% in voting intention, tightening the two-horse race, but MRP projections like YouGov's late-April model continue favoring Plaid's seat efficiency in key regions. Plaid's leader has cast the contest as a direct clash of national visions, with no late campaign shocks reported.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$111,605End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).With the Senedd election one week away on May 7, trader consensus prices Plaid Cymru at a 72.5% implied probability to secure the most seats under the new 96-member proportional representation system across 16 constituencies, well ahead of Reform UK at 27.5%, while Welsh Labour and others languish below 1% amid the incumbent party's historic collapse to around 15% vote share after 27 years governing. A fresh Survation poll for Aberystwyth University places Reform narrowly ahead at 30%-28% in voting intention, tightening the two-horse race, but MRP projections like YouGov's late-April model continue favoring Plaid's seat efficiency in key regions. Plaid's leader has cast the contest as a direct clash of national visions, with no late campaign shocks reported.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Volume
$111,605End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the Senedd election one week away on May 7, trader consensus prices Plaid Cymru at a 72.5% implied probability to secure the most seats under the new 96-member proportional representation system across 16 constituencies, well ahead of Reform UK at 27.5%, while Welsh Labour and others languish below 1% amid the incumbent party's historic collapse to around 15% vote share after 27 years governing. A fresh Survation poll for Aberystwyth University places Reform narrowly ahead at 30%-28% in voting intention, tightening the two-horse race, but MRP projections like YouGov's late-April model continue favoring Plaid's seat efficiency in key regions. Plaid's leader has cast the contest as a direct clash of national visions, with no late campaign shocks reported.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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