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Politics·United Kingdom

Next First Minister of Wales?

icon for Next First Minister of Wales?
Politics·United Kingdom

Next First Minister of Wales?

Rhun ap Iorwerth 90%

Darren Millar 10.1%

Eluned Morgan 7.6%

Anthony Slaughter 6.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Rhun ap Iorwerth 90%

Darren Millar 10.1%

Eluned Morgan 7.6%

Anthony Slaughter 6.7%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Rhun ap Iorwerth

Rhun ap Iorwerth

$1,056 Vol.

90%

icon for Darren Millar

Darren Millar

$212 Vol.

10%

icon for Eluned Morgan

Eluned Morgan

$228 Vol.

8%

icon for Anthony Slaughter

Anthony Slaughter

$318 Vol.

7%

icon for Jane Dodds

Jane Dodds

$176 Vol.

6%

icon for Dan Thomas

Dan Thomas

$391 Vol.

3%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ahead of the 7 May 2026 Senedd election under proportional representation, trader consensus prices Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth at 89.5% implied probability to become next First Minister, reflecting recent polls positioning Plaid as the largest party with 28% support while Labour slumps to 15%. A March YouGov MRP projected Plaid seat gains amid voter backlash against Welsh Labour's 27-year dominance, compounded by current First Minister Eluned Morgan's 30 April gaffe urging supporters to vote Plaid Cymru. Post-election coalition negotiations or minority government support will determine the nominee, with Reform UK's proximity in polls sustaining slim odds for alternatives like Anthony Slaughter.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,381
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ahead of the 7 May 2026 Senedd election under proportional representation, trader consensus prices Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth at 89.5% implied probability to become next First Minister, reflecting recent polls positioning Plaid as the largest party with 28% support while Labour slumps to 15%. A March YouGov MRP projected Plaid seat gains amid voter backlash against Welsh Labour's 27-year dominance, compounded by current First Minister Eluned Morgan's 30 April gaffe urging supporters to vote Plaid Cymru. Post-election coalition negotiations or minority government support will determine the nominee, with Reform UK's proximity in polls sustaining slim odds for alternatives like Anthony Slaughter.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,381
End Date
May 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next First Minister of Wales?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rhun ap Iorwerth" at 90%, followed by "Darren Millar" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next First Minister of Wales?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next First Minister of Wales?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next First Minister of Wales?" is "Rhun ap Iorwerth" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Darren Millar" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next First Minister of Wales?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.