Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott dominates trader consensus at 94% implied probability for the August 11 Republican primary, bolstered by his landslide 2024 reelection victory—securing over 70% statewide—and sustained high approval ratings as Vermont's most popular governor. Recent circulation of petitions to place Scott on the primary ballot, confirmed in early April, signals his likely bid for a sixth term amid no declared challengers, reinforcing his incumbency advantage in the low-turnout GOP contest. Lt. Gov. John Rodgers trails at 2%, despite party affiliation, as he focuses on his own reelection. Shifts could arise from a credible late entrant before the May 28 filing deadline, Scott's withdrawal, scandal, or health issues, though barriers remain high given historical primary dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPhil Scott
94%
John Rodgers
2%
Phil Scott
94%
John Rodgers
2%
If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 10:40 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott dominates trader consensus at 94% implied probability for the August 11 Republican primary, bolstered by his landslide 2024 reelection victory—securing over 70% statewide—and sustained high approval ratings as Vermont's most popular governor. Recent circulation of petitions to place Scott on the primary ballot, confirmed in early April, signals his likely bid for a sixth term amid no declared challengers, reinforcing his incumbency advantage in the low-turnout GOP contest. Lt. Gov. John Rodgers trails at 2%, despite party affiliation, as he focuses on his own reelection. Shifts could arise from a credible late entrant before the May 28 filing deadline, Scott's withdrawal, scandal, or health issues, though barriers remain high given historical primary dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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