Incumbent Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte commands trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial primary on September 8, 2026, bolstered by her strong general election polling, including a recent UNH Survey Center poll from April 17-21 showing her leading Democrat Cinde Warmington 47%-39% among likely voters. With no other candidates declared ahead of the June filing period and Ayotte's 51% approval rating, her incumbency provides a clear path to renomination amid favorable base rates for sitting governors in primaries. Corey Lewandowski trails at 11% on lingering speculation from October 2025 reports of a potential Trump ally challenge over congressional redistricting disputes, though no recent announcements have materialized to shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKelly Ayotte
85%
Corey Lewandowski
12%
Kelly Ayotte
85%
Corey Lewandowski
12%
If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 5:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte commands trader consensus at 85% implied probability to win the New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial primary on September 8, 2026, bolstered by her strong general election polling, including a recent UNH Survey Center poll from April 17-21 showing her leading Democrat Cinde Warmington 47%-39% among likely voters. With no other candidates declared ahead of the June filing period and Ayotte's 51% approval rating, her incumbency provides a clear path to renomination amid favorable base rates for sitting governors in primaries. Corey Lewandowski trails at 11% on lingering speculation from October 2025 reports of a potential Trump ally challenge over congressional redistricting disputes, though no recent announcements have materialized to shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions