Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran, driven by mediated talks involving Oman and Pakistan, has elevated expectations for a framework agreement that could encompass nuclear commitments by late July. President Trump has publicly described an accord as largely negotiated, with potential elements including a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and the start of technical nuclear talks focused on enrichment limits and stockpile management. Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing but confirmed ongoing exchanges, including counteroffers on nuclear parameters. These developments, building on resumed negotiations after earlier pauses, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing for a deal by the July 31 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
$374,150 Vol.
$374,150 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
$374,150 Vol.
$374,150 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran, driven by mediated talks involving Oman and Pakistan, has elevated expectations for a framework agreement that could encompass nuclear commitments by late July. President Trump has publicly described an accord as largely negotiated, with potential elements including a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and the start of technical nuclear talks focused on enrichment limits and stockpile management. Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing but confirmed ongoing exchanges, including counteroffers on nuclear parameters. These developments, building on resumed negotiations after earlier pauses, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing for a deal by the July 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$374,150End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran, driven by mediated talks involving Oman and Pakistan, has elevated expectations for a framework agreement that could encompass nuclear commitments by late July. President Trump has publicly described an accord as largely negotiated, with potential elements including a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and the start of technical nuclear talks focused on enrichment limits and stockpile management. Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing but confirmed ongoing exchanges, including counteroffers on nuclear parameters. These developments, building on resumed negotiations after earlier pauses, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing for a deal by the July 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$374,978End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
May 26, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum between the United States and Iran, driven by mediated talks involving Oman and Pakistan, has elevated expectations for a framework agreement that could encompass nuclear commitments by late July. President Trump has publicly described an accord as largely negotiated, with potential elements including a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and the start of technical nuclear talks focused on enrichment limits and stockpile management. Iranian officials have expressed caution on timing but confirmed ongoing exchanges, including counteroffers on nuclear parameters. These developments, building on resumed negotiations after earlier pauses, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing for a deal by the July 31 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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