Skip to main content
icon for TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

icon for TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

Jon Bonck 93.3%

Avery Ayers 4.6%

Jennifer Sundt 3.6%

Larry Rubin 3.6%

Polymarket

$36,988 Vol.

Jon Bonck 93.3%

Avery Ayers 4.6%

Jennifer Sundt 3.6%

Larry Rubin 3.6%

Polymarket

$36,988 Vol.

Jon Bonck

$17,463 Vol.

93%

Avery Ayers

$2,240 Vol.

5%

Jennifer Sundt

$2,276 Vol.

4%

Larry Rubin

$2,085 Vol.

4%

Michael Pratt

$2,660 Vol.

3%

Shelly deZevallos

$3,110 Vol.

3%

Barrett McNabb

$1,618 Vol.

2%

Jeff Yuna

$2,467 Vol.

1%

Craig Goralski

$1,570 Vol.

1%

Carmen Montiel

$1,498 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck holds commanding trader consensus at 93% to win the TX-38 Republican primary runoff on May 26, propelled by his leading 47% performance among 10 candidates in the March 3 first-round primary—well ahead of Shelly deZevallos at second place—bolstered by former President Trump's endorsement, Club for Growth PAC support, and robust fundraising exceeding $1 million. Recent momentum includes a new campaign ad emphasizing Christian conservative values released April 21, grassroots yard sign distribution, an upcoming Cypress event with Rep. Brandon Gill, and an April 28 endorsement from parental rights advocate Denise Bell, with early voting starting May 18. While Bonck's frontrunner status reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of incumbency-like advantages in this GOP stronghold vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt, a late scandal, deZevallos turnout edge among non-voters, or attack ads could narrow the gap in the low-turnout runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$36,988
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jon Bonck holds commanding trader consensus at 93% to win the TX-38 Republican primary runoff on May 26, propelled by his leading 47% performance among 10 candidates in the March 3 first-round primary—well ahead of Shelly deZevallos at second place—bolstered by former President Trump's endorsement, Club for Growth PAC support, and robust fundraising exceeding $1 million. Recent momentum includes a new campaign ad emphasizing Christian conservative values released April 21, grassroots yard sign distribution, an upcoming Cypress event with Rep. Brandon Gill, and an April 28 endorsement from parental rights advocate Denise Bell, with early voting starting May 18. While Bonck's frontrunner status reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of incumbency-like advantages in this GOP stronghold vacated by Rep. Wesley Hunt, a late scandal, deZevallos turnout edge among non-voters, or attack ads could narrow the gap in the low-turnout runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$36,988
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

90%
icon for Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?

Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?

85%
icon for Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?

Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01?

87%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jon Bonck" at 93%, followed by "Avery Ayers" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $37K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jon Bonck" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Avery Ayers" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-38 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.