Recent polls have driven President Trump's job approval to second-term lows near 34-36% approve versus 57-64% disapprove, with net ratings around -21 to -30, amid voter concerns over the ongoing war with Iran, spikes in gas and food prices, and economic handling. Trader consensus tilts slightly to "Down" at 50.5% implied probability for a weekly decline in polling averages like Nate Silver's tracker or the Economist's, reflecting a 1.2-point net drop last week and Rasmussen's 8-point slide, though limited new surveys keep it closely contested. Tipping factors include fresh polls, economic data releases, or Iran diplomatic updates that could accelerate erosion or prompt a rebound.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
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May 15, 2026
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May 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 15, 2026, than on May 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 8, 2026, than on May 15, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls have driven President Trump's job approval to second-term lows near 34-36% approve versus 57-64% disapprove, with net ratings around -21 to -30, amid voter concerns over the ongoing war with Iran, spikes in gas and food prices, and economic handling. Trader consensus tilts slightly to "Down" at 50.5% implied probability for a weekly decline in polling averages like Nate Silver's tracker or the Economist's, reflecting a 1.2-point net drop last week and Rasmussen's 8-point slide, though limited new surveys keep it closely contested. Tipping factors include fresh polls, economic data releases, or Iran diplomatic updates that could accelerate erosion or prompt a rebound.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 15, 2026, than on May 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 8, 2026, than on May 15, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 8, 2026, than on May 15, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$153End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 15, 2026, than on May 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 8, 2026, than on May 15, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls have driven President Trump's job approval to second-term lows near 34-36% approve versus 57-64% disapprove, with net ratings around -21 to -30, amid voter concerns over the ongoing war with Iran, spikes in gas and food prices, and economic handling. Trader consensus tilts slightly to "Down" at 50.5% implied probability for a weekly decline in polling averages like Nate Silver's tracker or the Economist's, reflecting a 1.2-point net drop last week and Rasmussen's 8-point slide, though limited new surveys keep it closely contested. Tipping factors include fresh polls, economic data releases, or Iran diplomatic updates that could accelerate erosion or prompt a rebound.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 15, 2026, than on May 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 8, 2026, than on May 15, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 8, 2026, than on May 15, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$153End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls have driven President Trump's job approval to second-term lows near 34-36% approve versus 57-64% disapprove, with net ratings around -21 to -30, amid voter concerns over the ongoing war with Iran, spikes in gas and food prices, and economic handling. Trader consensus tilts slightly to "Down" at 50.5% implied probability for a weekly decline in polling averages like Nate Silver's tracker or the Economist's, reflecting a 1.2-point net drop last week and Rasmussen's 8-point slide, though limited new surveys keep it closely contested. Tipping factors include fresh polls, economic data releases, or Iran diplomatic updates that could accelerate erosion or prompt a rebound.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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