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Politics·Saudi Arabia

Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?

icon for Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?
Politics·Saudi Arabia

Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?

1% chance
Polymarket

$15,153 Vol.

1% chance
Polymarket

$15,153 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Mohammed bin Salman personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Saudi Arabia's refusal to grant U.S. military access to its bases and airspace for President Trump's "Project Freedom" operation in the Strait of Hormuz—announced without prior coordination—has sharply strained U.S.-Saudi diplomatic ties, following a failed call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). This fresh escalation builds on Trump's March 2026 public remark mocking MBS as "kissing my ass" at an investment conference, fueling trader consensus at 54% for a new insult by May 15 amid their historically close alliance now tested by Gulf de-escalation efforts with Iran via Pakistan. Odds remain competitive due to Trump's unpredictable foreign policy rhetoric; a public White House rebuke could push "Yes" higher, while reconciliation talks might favor "No."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Mohammed bin Salman personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,153
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 2:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Mohammed bin Salman personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Mohammed bin Salman personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Saudi Arabia's refusal to grant U.S. military access to its bases and airspace for President Trump's "Project Freedom" operation in the Strait of Hormuz—announced without prior coordination—has sharply strained U.S.-Saudi diplomatic ties, following a failed call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). This fresh escalation builds on Trump's March 2026 public remark mocking MBS as "kissing my ass" at an investment conference, fueling trader consensus at 54% for a new insult by May 15 amid their historically close alliance now tested by Gulf de-escalation efforts with Iran via Pakistan. Odds remain competitive due to Trump's unpredictable foreign policy rhetoric; a public White House rebuke could push "Yes" higher, while reconciliation talks might favor "No."

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Mohammed bin Salman personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,153
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 2:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Mohammed bin Salman personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 1% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 1¢, the market collectively assigns a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?" has generated $15.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?" is 1% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.