Recent polls from Reuters/Ipsos, AP-NORC, and Marist place President Trump's job approval rating in the mid-to-high 30s, around 34-38%, with disapproval hitting new second-term highs above 60% amid public dissatisfaction over inflation, rising gas prices, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Aggregators like The New York Times (38% approve) and Nate Silver reflect similar upper-30s figures as of May 7-8, driving trader consensus to cluster probabilities tightly across 38-40% bins for the May 15 snapshot, typical of volatile short-term polling averages. This close contest persists due to daily fluctuations in survey data and base rates of incumbent approval stability, but separation could emerge from upcoming economic releases, Iran diplomatic updates, or midterm-related messaging before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated38.5–38.9 43%
39.0–39.4 33%
38.0–38.4 22%
39.5–39.9 5%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
<38.0
2%
38.0–38.4
22%
38.5–38.9
43%
39.0–39.4
33%
39.5–39.9
5%
40.0+
2%
38.5–38.9 43%
39.0–39.4 33%
38.0–38.4 22%
39.5–39.9 5%
NEW
NEW
May 15, 2026
<38.0
$88 Vol.
2%
38.0–38.4
$217 Vol.
22%
38.5–38.9
$568 Vol.
43%
39.0–39.4
$84 Vol.
33%
39.5–39.9
$140 Vol.
5%
40.0+
$90 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls from Reuters/Ipsos, AP-NORC, and Marist place President Trump's job approval rating in the mid-to-high 30s, around 34-38%, with disapproval hitting new second-term highs above 60% amid public dissatisfaction over inflation, rising gas prices, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Aggregators like The New York Times (38% approve) and Nate Silver reflect similar upper-30s figures as of May 7-8, driving trader consensus to cluster probabilities tightly across 38-40% bins for the May 15 snapshot, typical of volatile short-term polling averages. This close contest persists due to daily fluctuations in survey data and base rates of incumbent approval stability, but separation could emerge from upcoming economic releases, Iran diplomatic updates, or midterm-related messaging before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$1,187End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polls from Reuters/Ipsos, AP-NORC, and Marist place President Trump's job approval rating in the mid-to-high 30s, around 34-38%, with disapproval hitting new second-term highs above 60% amid public dissatisfaction over inflation, rising gas prices, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Aggregators like The New York Times (38% approve) and Nate Silver reflect similar upper-30s figures as of May 7-8, driving trader consensus to cluster probabilities tightly across 38-40% bins for the May 15 snapshot, typical of volatile short-term polling averages. This close contest persists due to daily fluctuations in survey data and base rates of incumbent approval stability, but separation could emerge from upcoming economic releases, Iran diplomatic updates, or midterm-related messaging before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$1,187End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Reuters/Ipsos, AP-NORC, and Marist place President Trump's job approval rating in the mid-to-high 30s, around 34-38%, with disapproval hitting new second-term highs above 60% amid public dissatisfaction over inflation, rising gas prices, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Aggregators like The New York Times (38% approve) and Nate Silver reflect similar upper-30s figures as of May 7-8, driving trader consensus to cluster probabilities tightly across 38-40% bins for the May 15 snapshot, typical of volatile short-term polling averages. This close contest persists due to daily fluctuations in survey data and base rates of incumbent approval stability, but separation could emerge from upcoming economic releases, Iran diplomatic updates, or midterm-related messaging before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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