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Politics·Primaries

South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Dusty Johnson 57%

Toby Doeden 33%

Larry Rhoden 8.4%

Jon Hansen 3.9%

Polymarket

$55,448 Vol.

Dusty Johnson 57%

Toby Doeden 33%

Larry Rhoden 8.4%

Jon Hansen 3.9%

Polymarket

$55,448 Vol.

Dusty Johnson

$14,227 Vol.

57%

Toby Doeden

$19,200 Vol.

33%

Larry Rhoden

$14,264 Vol.

8%

Jon Hansen

$7,757 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson's lead in recent Mason-Dixon polling (34% among registered Republicans, April 7–11) has solidified trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for the South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary winner on June 2, approaching the 35% threshold to avoid a July 28 runoff. His gains from prior surveys reflect strong name recognition, highest favorability (47%), and fundraising dominance, even in incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden's West River base, where Rhoden has fallen to 17%. Businessman Toby Doeden at 33% benefits from steady support (17% in polls) and appeal to conservative voters amid debates highlighting policy differences like school plans; State House Speaker Jon Hansen trails at 18% in surveys but 3.5% on market. Early voting is underway with undecideds at 14%.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$55,448
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 11:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson's lead in recent Mason-Dixon polling (34% among registered Republicans, April 7–11) has solidified trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability for the South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary winner on June 2, approaching the 35% threshold to avoid a July 28 runoff. His gains from prior surveys reflect strong name recognition, highest favorability (47%), and fundraising dominance, even in incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden's West River base, where Rhoden has fallen to 17%. Businessman Toby Doeden at 33% benefits from steady support (17% in polls) and appeal to conservative voters amid debates highlighting policy differences like school plans; State House Speaker Jon Hansen trails at 18% in surveys but 3.5% on market. Early voting is underway with undecideds at 14%.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$55,448
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 11:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Dakota, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dusty Johnson" at 57%, followed by "Toby Doeden" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $55.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Dusty Johnson" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Toby Doeden" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.