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Politics·Primaries

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

Aaron Guckian 44.7%

Elaine Pelino 34%

Ashley Kalus 5.5%

Jessica de la Cruz 2.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Guckian 44.7%

Elaine Pelino 34%

Ashley Kalus 5.5%

Jessica de la Cruz 2.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Guckian

$2,406 Vol.

45%

Elaine Pelino

$1,835 Vol.

34%

Ashley Kalus

$0 Vol.

6%

Jessica de la Cruz

$1,463 Vol.

3%

Robert Raimondo

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors Aaron Guckian as the frontrunner for Rhode Island's September 9 Republican gubernatorial primary, with 51% implied probability reflecting his early campaign momentum since the December 2025 launch, emphasis on prolific fundraising, and prior role as an aide to former Gov. Donald Carcieri positioning him as a practical, moderate choice. Elaine Pelino holds steady at 35%, buoyed by her active grassroots push and a late-April partisan poll from Narragansett GOP leaders claiming a 72% lead over Guckian, though traders discount it absent neutral surveys. Declining odds for 2022 nominee Ashley Kalus and others underscore a fragmented field, where endorsements or debates could shift dynamics ahead of low-turnout primary voting.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$5,704
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 11:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus favors Aaron Guckian as the frontrunner for Rhode Island's September 9 Republican gubernatorial primary, with 51% implied probability reflecting his early campaign momentum since the December 2025 launch, emphasis on prolific fundraising, and prior role as an aide to former Gov. Donald Carcieri positioning him as a practical, moderate choice. Elaine Pelino holds steady at 35%, buoyed by her active grassroots push and a late-April partisan poll from Narragansett GOP leaders claiming a 72% lead over Guckian, though traders discount it absent neutral surveys. Declining odds for 2022 nominee Ashley Kalus and others underscore a fragmented field, where endorsements or debates could shift dynamics ahead of low-turnout primary voting.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$5,704
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 11:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aaron Guckian" at 45%, followed by "Elaine Pelino" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 11, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Aaron Guckian" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elaine Pelino" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.