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Politics·Primaries

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

icon for Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner

Aaron Guckian 47.1%

Elaine Pelino 34%

Ashley Kalus 5.5%

Robert Raimondo 4.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Guckian 47.1%

Elaine Pelino 34%

Ashley Kalus 5.5%

Robert Raimondo 4.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Aaron Guckian

$2,405 Vol.

47%

Elaine Pelino

$1,832 Vol.

34%

Ashley Kalus

$0 Vol.

6%

Robert Raimondo

$0 Vol.

5%

Jessica de la Cruz

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus in Rhode Island's Republican gubernatorial primary favors Aaron Guckian at 42% implied probability, buoyed by his early December 2025 campaign launch, prior lieutenant governor nomination, and establishment ties as a former aide to ex-Governor Donald Carcieri, positioning him as the more electable moderate. Elaine Pelino trails closely at 34%, propelled by grassroots enthusiasm from Trump supporters and a partisan April 28 poll claiming 72% support among conservatives, though traders discount its methodology amid sparse neutral polling. Low expected GOP primary turnout in deep-blue Rhode Island keeps the multicandidate field fragmented, with Ashley Kalus fading; upcoming neutral polls, Q2 fundraising reports, state party endorsements, or debates could tip the balance toward viability in the general election.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,237
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 11:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus in Rhode Island's Republican gubernatorial primary favors Aaron Guckian at 42% implied probability, buoyed by his early December 2025 campaign launch, prior lieutenant governor nomination, and establishment ties as a former aide to ex-Governor Donald Carcieri, positioning him as the more electable moderate. Elaine Pelino trails closely at 34%, propelled by grassroots enthusiasm from Trump supporters and a partisan April 28 poll claiming 72% support among conservatives, though traders discount its methodology amid sparse neutral polling. Low expected GOP primary turnout in deep-blue Rhode Island keeps the multicandidate field fragmented, with Ashley Kalus fading; upcoming neutral polls, Q2 fundraising reports, state party endorsements, or debates could tip the balance toward viability in the general election.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$4,237
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 11:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aaron Guckian" at 47%, followed by "Elaine Pelino" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 11, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Aaron Guckian" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elaine Pelino" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rhode Island Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.