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Politics·Primaries

PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner

Chris Rabb 55.5%

Sharif Street 34%

Ala Stanford 14.1%

Gabriel Caceres <1%

Polymarket

$30,294 Vol.

Chris Rabb 55.5%

Sharif Street 34%

Ala Stanford 14.1%

Gabriel Caceres <1%

Polymarket

$30,294 Vol.

Chris Rabb

$4,589 Vol.

55%

Sharif Street

$7,376 Vol.

34%

Ala Stanford

$3,578 Vol.

14%

Gabriel Caceres

$4,362 Vol.

<1%

David Oxman

$4,749 Vol.

<1%

Morgan Cephas

$1,784 Vol.

<1%

Robin Toldens

$3,857 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary on May 19, trader consensus favors state Rep. Chris Rabb at 52% implied probability, driven by his recent fundraising surge topping rivals and high-profile progressive endorsements from Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Pramila Jayapal, Ro Khanna, and Jamie Raskin, plus the Philadelphia Inquirer. State Sen. Sharif Street holds at 38% on strong establishment support including unions and local electeds like Mayor Cherelle Parker, while pediatrician Ala Stanford trails at 14% amid controversy over $500,000 in undisclosed funding from pro-Israel groups like AIPAC's 314 Action Fund and her late withdrawal from a key debate. An early April poll showed Stanford leading narrowly, but Rabb's momentum has shifted market odds in this closely contested open seat race replacing retiring Rep. Dwight Evans.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$30,294
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary on May 19, trader consensus favors state Rep. Chris Rabb at 52% implied probability, driven by his recent fundraising surge topping rivals and high-profile progressive endorsements from Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Pramila Jayapal, Ro Khanna, and Jamie Raskin, plus the Philadelphia Inquirer. State Sen. Sharif Street holds at 38% on strong establishment support including unions and local electeds like Mayor Cherelle Parker, while pediatrician Ala Stanford trails at 14% amid controversy over $500,000 in undisclosed funding from pro-Israel groups like AIPAC's 314 Action Fund and her late withdrawal from a key debate. An early April poll showed Stanford leading narrowly, but Rabb's momentum has shifted market odds in this closely contested open seat race replacing retiring Rep. Dwight Evans.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$30,294
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Chris Rabb" at 55%, followed by "Sharif Street" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $30.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Chris Rabb" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sharif Street" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "PA-03 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.