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Elections·Pennsylvania Primary

PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Pennsylvania Primary

PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Janelle Stelson 92.6%

Michael Robinson 7.4%

Justin Douglas 2.4%

Jason Cass 2.0%

Polymarket

$19,930 Vol.

Janelle Stelson 92.6%

Michael Robinson 7.4%

Justin Douglas 2.4%

Jason Cass 2.0%

Polymarket

$19,930 Vol.

Janelle Stelson

$7,269 Vol.

93%

Michael Robinson

$1,345 Vol.

7%

Justin Douglas

$1,103 Vol.

2%

Jason Cass

$8,678 Vol.

2%

William Lillich

$1,535 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Janelle Stelson commands 92% trader consensus in the PA-10 Democratic primary due to her fundraising dominance, widespread name recognition as a former WGAL news anchor, and near-upset of incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry in the 2024 general election, positioning her as the strongest general election nominee in this battleground district. Recent candidate forums on April 27 highlighted policy contrasts between centrist Stelson and progressive challenger Justin Douglas, but showed no momentum shift toward underdogs like Michael Robinson or William Lillich. With the May 19 closed primary approaching, her lead reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of voter turnout and endorsements; realistic challenges include a late progressive surge, damaging revelations, or key party backing for a rival.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,930
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Janelle Stelson commands 92% trader consensus in the PA-10 Democratic primary due to her fundraising dominance, widespread name recognition as a former WGAL news anchor, and near-upset of incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry in the 2024 general election, positioning her as the strongest general election nominee in this battleground district. Recent candidate forums on April 27 highlighted policy contrasts between centrist Stelson and progressive challenger Justin Douglas, but showed no momentum shift toward underdogs like Michael Robinson or William Lillich. With the May 19 closed primary approaching, her lead reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of voter turnout and endorsements; realistic challenges include a late progressive surge, damaging revelations, or key party backing for a rival.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$19,930
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Janelle Stelson" at 93%, followed by "Michael Robinson" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $19.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Janelle Stelson" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Robinson" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "PA-10 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.