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Elections·Primaries

NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Claire Valdez 73%

Antonio Reynoso 22%

Julie Won 2.4%

Kristen Gonzalez <1%

Polymarket

$93,511 Vol.

Claire Valdez 73%

Antonio Reynoso 22%

Julie Won 2.4%

Kristen Gonzalez <1%

Polymarket

$93,511 Vol.

Claire Valdez

$7,523 Vol.

73%

Antonio Reynoso

$7,603 Vol.

22%

Julie Won

$3,327 Vol.

2%

Kristen Gonzalez

$24,788 Vol.

1%

Lincoln Restler

$4,963 Vol.

<1%

Julia Salazar

$5,988 Vol.

<1%

Jennifer Gútierrez

$24,670 Vol.

<1%

Sandy Nurse

$7,969 Vol.

<1%

Tiffany Cabán

$6,680 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Claire Valdez commands 72.5% implied probability in the NY-07 Democratic primary market, driven by her dominant grassroots fundraising—recently surpassing 15,000 small-dollar donors averaging $50 each—and high-profile endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Sen. Bernie Sanders, NYC-DSA, and Justice Democrats. These factors, highlighted in early April disclosures and a Justice Democrats poll showing her leading Antonio Reynoso by 13 points among informed voters, have fueled trader consensus on her strength in progressive strongholds like Bushwick, Williamsburg, and Ridgewood. Reynoso holds 22% with backing from retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez, Rep. Pat Ryan, and Queens County Democrats, but trails amid Valdez's momentum. The June 23 primary remains the key test in this open seat race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$93,511
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Claire Valdez commands 72.5% implied probability in the NY-07 Democratic primary market, driven by her dominant grassroots fundraising—recently surpassing 15,000 small-dollar donors averaging $50 each—and high-profile endorsements from Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Sen. Bernie Sanders, NYC-DSA, and Justice Democrats. These factors, highlighted in early April disclosures and a Justice Democrats poll showing her leading Antonio Reynoso by 13 points among informed voters, have fueled trader consensus on her strength in progressive strongholds like Bushwick, Williamsburg, and Ridgewood. Reynoso holds 22% with backing from retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez, Rep. Pat Ryan, and Queens County Democrats, but trails amid Valdez's momentum. The June 23 primary remains the key test in this open seat race.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$93,511
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Claire Valdez" at 73%, followed by "Antonio Reynoso" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $93.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Claire Valdez" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Antonio Reynoso" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.