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Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Brad Lander 85%

Dan Goldman 14%

Cameron Kasky <1%

Alexa Avilés <1%

Polymarket

$10,027 Vol.

Brad Lander 85%

Dan Goldman 14%

Cameron Kasky <1%

Alexa Avilés <1%

Polymarket

$10,027 Vol.

Brad Lander

$4,606 Vol.

85%

Dan Goldman

$1,903 Vol.

14%

Cameron Kasky

$1,266 Vol.

<1%

Alexa Avilés

$1,283 Vol.

<1%

Yuh-Line Niou

$969 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Brad Lander's commanding 83.5% implied probability in the NY-10 Democratic primary stems from private polls showing him with a sizable lead over incumbent Dan Goldman, reinforced by progressive endorsements like 32BJ SEIU's backing last week and relationships with Mayor Zohran Mamdani's coalition. Goldman's 14% share reflects his fundraising dominance—outpacing Lander threefold in Q1—and recent pledge to self-fund at least $1 million amid feuds over "dark money" PACs, yet traders view these as insufficient against Lander's momentum in the left-leaning district. Minor candidates like Cameron Kasky, Alexa Avilés, and Yuh-Line Niou trail due to limited visibility. With the June 23 primary approaching, televised debates could shift dynamics, though upsets remain unlikely absent scandals or turnout surprises.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,027
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Brad Lander's commanding 83.5% implied probability in the NY-10 Democratic primary stems from private polls showing him with a sizable lead over incumbent Dan Goldman, reinforced by progressive endorsements like 32BJ SEIU's backing last week and relationships with Mayor Zohran Mamdani's coalition. Goldman's 14% share reflects his fundraising dominance—outpacing Lander threefold in Q1—and recent pledge to self-fund at least $1 million amid feuds over "dark money" PACs, yet traders view these as insufficient against Lander's momentum in the left-leaning district. Minor candidates like Cameron Kasky, Alexa Avilés, and Yuh-Line Niou trail due to limited visibility. With the June 23 primary approaching, televised debates could shift dynamics, though upsets remain unlikely absent scandals or turnout surprises.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,027
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brad Lander" at 85%, followed by "Dan Goldman" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $10K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Brad Lander" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Goldman" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-10 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.