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Elections·Primaries

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Laura Gillen 74%

Nicholas Sciretta 12%

Taylor Darling 7.9%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket

$16,561 Vol.

Laura Gillen 74%

Nicholas Sciretta 12%

Taylor Darling 7.9%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket

$16,561 Vol.

Laura Gillen

$5,288 Vol.

74%

Nicholas Sciretta

$7,599 Vol.

12%

Taylor Darling

$2,038 Vol.

8%

Gian Jones

$1,636 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her overwhelming fundraising advantage—over $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' negligible totals—and endorsements from House Democratic leadership, solidifying her establishment support in this Long Island district. Former Assemblymember Taylor Darling's withdrawal on April 20, motivated by policy disagreements like Gillen's ICE funding vote, has further consolidated backing behind the frontrunner, though her odds linger at 8.6% amid potential residual sentiment. Artist and stagehand Nicholas Sciretta holds second at 11% on grassroots visibility from recent town halls, while Gian Jones trails at 0.2%; absent public polls, markets price low challenger viability in a likely low-turnout contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$16,561
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen leads trader consensus at 75.5% implied probability in the NY-04 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by her overwhelming fundraising advantage—over $1.5 million cash on hand versus challengers' negligible totals—and endorsements from House Democratic leadership, solidifying her establishment support in this Long Island district. Former Assemblymember Taylor Darling's withdrawal on April 20, motivated by policy disagreements like Gillen's ICE funding vote, has further consolidated backing behind the frontrunner, though her odds linger at 8.6% amid potential residual sentiment. Artist and stagehand Nicholas Sciretta holds second at 11% on grassroots visibility from recent town halls, while Gian Jones trails at 0.2%; absent public polls, markets price low challenger viability in a likely low-turnout contest.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$16,561
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Laura Gillen" at 74%, followed by "Nicholas Sciretta" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $16.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Laura Gillen" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nicholas Sciretta" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-04 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.