Skip to main content
icon for No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Politics·UK

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

icon for No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Politics·UK

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

12% chance
Polymarket
NEW
12% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting. Labour's commanding 174-seat majority in the House of Commons underpins the 88% trader consensus against a no-confidence vote targeting Prime Minister Keir Starmer by June 30, as opposition parties lack the numbers to prevail without substantial Labour defections. Recent opposition calls from SNP leader Stephen Flynn and Conservatives, united over Starmer's handling of Lord Mandelson's vetting for Middle East envoy amid claims of misleading Parliament (April 21), have generated headlines but no formal motion or cross-party momentum. Ahead of May 7 local elections, where Labour faces projected heavy losses, internal grumbling persists yet party discipline holds, reflecting historical patterns where large majorities insulate governments from early no-confidence threats.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,935
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting. Labour's commanding 174-seat majority in the House of Commons underpins the 88% trader consensus against a no-confidence vote targeting Prime Minister Keir Starmer by June 30, as opposition parties lack the numbers to prevail without substantial Labour defections. Recent opposition calls from SNP leader Stephen Flynn and Conservatives, united over Starmer's handling of Lord Mandelson's vetting for Middle East envoy amid claims of misleading Parliament (April 21), have generated headlines but no formal motion or cross-party momentum. Ahead of May 7 local elections, where Labour faces projected heavy losses, internal grumbling persists yet party discipline holds, reflecting historical patterns where large majorities insulate governments from early no-confidence threats.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,935
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 2:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

66%
icon for UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026?

53%
icon for Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

33%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 12% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 12¢, the market collectively assigns a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" is 12% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.